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Pomona's Violent Crime Trends: A Decade of Fluctuations Amidst Demographic Shifts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Pomona, located in California, has experienced significant fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 1.7%, from 877 to 860 incidents. During this same period, the city's population decreased by 2.1%, from 149,225 to 146,015 residents, indicating a slight rise in the crime rate relative to population size.
The murder rate in Pomona has shown considerable variability. In 2010, there were 16 murders, which decreased to 14 in 2022. This represents a 12.5% reduction in the total number of murders. When adjusted for population, the murder rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 0.107 in 2010 to 0.096 in 2022. The city's percentage of state murders fluctuated, peaking at 2.07% in 2013 before declining to 0.81% in 2022. This suggests that while the absolute number of murders has decreased, Pomona's contribution to state-wide murder statistics has also diminished.
Rape incidents in the city have shown an overall increasing trend. In 2010, there were 37 reported rapes, which increased to 81 in 2022, representing a 119% increase. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.248 in 2010 to 0.555 in 2022. The city's percentage of state rapes increased from 0.55% in 2010 to 0.68% in 2022, indicating that Pomona's rape incidents have grown faster than the state average.
Robbery cases in Pomona have decreased over time. In 2010, there were 323 robberies, which declined to 244 in 2022, a 24.5% decrease. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.165 in 2010 to 1.671 in 2022. The city's percentage of state robberies decreased slightly from 0.63% to 0.58% during this period, suggesting that Pomona's robbery reduction is somewhat in line with state trends.
Aggravated assault incidents have fluctuated but shown an overall increase. In 2010, there were 501 aggravated assaults, which rose to 521 in 2022, a 4% increase. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people increased from 3.357 in 2010 to 3.568 in 2022. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults decreased from 0.66% to 0.51%, indicating that while assaults have increased in Pomona, they've grown at a slower rate than the state average.
There appears to be a correlation between violent crime trends and changes in the Hispanic population. As the Hispanic population increased from 66% in 2013 to 76% in 2022, violent crime rates also showed an upward trend. Additionally, there seems to be a relationship between rising median rent prices and fluctuations in violent crime. As median rent increased from $1,140 in 2013 to $1,668 in 2022, violent crime rates showed variability, potentially indicating economic pressures influencing crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a slight increase in overall violent crime rates. Based on current trends, murders may continue to decrease slightly, while rape incidents could continue their upward trajectory. Robbery rates are expected to stabilize or decrease marginally, and aggravated assaults may see a moderate increase.
In summary, Pomona has experienced mixed trends in violent crime over the past decade. While murders and robberies have decreased, rape and aggravated assault incidents have increased. The city's contribution to state-wide crime statistics has generally decreased across most categories, suggesting that Pomona's crime rates are growing slower than the state average in some areas. The relationship between demographic changes, economic factors, and crime rates underscores the complex nature of urban crime dynamics in Pomona.
