Robbery trends have shown a general decline over the years. In 2010, there were 89 robberies (0.17% of state total), which decreased to 73 in 2022 (0.17% of state total). The robbery rate per 1,000 people dropped from 1.293 in 2010 to 0.909 in 2022, indicating a significant improvement relative to population growth.

Aggravated assault cases have increased substantially. In 2010, there were 59 cases (0.08% of state total), which rose to 160 in 2022 (0.16% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.857 in 2010 to 1.993 in 2022, signifying a concerning trend that outpaces population growth.

A strong correlation is observed between the increase in violent crimes and population density. As the population density rose from 2,180 per square mile in 2010 to 2,542 in 2022, violent crimes also increased. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between rising median rent (from $1,278 in 2013 to $1,760 in 2022) and the overall increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it is estimated that by 2029, the city may see approximately 290 violent crimes annually if current trends continue. This projection assumes a continued increase in population density and median rent, which have shown strong correlations with crime rates.

In summary, Perris has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime patterns amidst rapid population growth. While robberies have decreased relative to population, aggravated assaults have risen sharply. The increasing murder rate and the overall upward trend in violent crimes, particularly in relation to population density and rising housing costs, present significant challenges for the community. These trends underscore the need for targeted interventions and community-based strategies to address the root causes of violent crime in this growing California city.