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Pekin, Illinois: Violent Crime Trends Reveal Complex Safety Landscape Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Pekin, located in Illinois, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, accompanied by a gradual population decline. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 11.2%, from 116 to 103 incidents. During this same period, the city's population declined by 5.3%, from 43,219 to 40,932 residents.
Murder rates in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 3 murders, representing 0.5% of the state's total. This number fluctuated over the years, with no murders reported in some years (2011, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019) and peaks of 4 murders in 2013 and 2021. The murder rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.069 in 2010 to 0.122 in 2022, despite the overall decrease in population. Notably, in 2021, the city's murders accounted for 4.65% of the state's total, a significant increase from previous years.
Rape incidents have shown an overall increasing trend. In 2010, there were 15 reported rapes (0.88% of the state's total), which increased to 45 in 2022 (1.28% of the state's total). The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.347 in 2010 to 1.099 in 2022, indicating a substantial increase in relation to the population. This trend suggests a growing concern for sexual violence in the community.
Robbery rates have fluctuated but generally decreased over time. In 2010, there were 6 robberies (0.03% of the state's total), which decreased to 4 in 2022 (0.04% of the state's total). The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.139 in 2010 to 0.098 in 2022, indicating a slight improvement in this area of violent crime relative to the population.
Aggravated assault incidents have shown a decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 92 aggravated assaults (0.36% of the state's total), which decreased to 49 in 2022 (0.39% of the state's total). The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.129 in 2010 to 1.197 in 2022, suggesting an improvement in this category of violent crime relative to the population.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the city's declining population density and the overall decrease in violent crimes. The population density decreased from 2,749 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,603 in 2022, coinciding with the general downward trend in violent crime rates. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the racial composition and crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased slightly from 95% in 2013 to 92% in 2022, there were fluctuations in violent crime rates, particularly in categories like rape and murder.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate the following: Murder rates may continue to fluctuate but are likely to remain low, potentially averaging 1-2 incidents per year. Rape incidents may continue their upward trend, potentially reaching 50-55 cases annually by 2029. Robbery rates are expected to remain relatively stable, possibly ranging between 4-8 incidents per year. Aggravated assaults may continue their downward trend, potentially decreasing to around 40-45 cases annually.
In summary, Pekin has shown mixed trends in violent crime over the past decade. While some categories like robbery and aggravated assault have improved, concerns remain about the increasing rape incidents and the volatility in murder rates. The city's declining population and changing demographics appear to have some correlation with these crime trends. As Pekin moves forward, addressing the rising sexual violence rates and maintaining the improvements in other violent crime categories will be crucial for enhancing public safety and community well-being.
