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Pasadena's Property Crime Trends: Rose City Sees Thorny Arson Spike Amid Overall Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Pasadena, California, a vibrant city known for its annual Rose Parade and Rose Bowl game, has experienced notable shifts in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Pasadena decreased by 25.16%, from 4,074 to 3,049 incidents. This decline occurred despite a slight population decrease of 2.24% during the same period, from 137,294 to 134,214 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 832 burglaries, which decreased to 543 in 2022, representing a 34.74% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 6.06 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 4.05 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the absolute number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.44% and 0.55% during this period. This suggests that the city's burglary reduction efforts have been largely in line with statewide trends.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also demonstrated a decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 2,864 larceny thefts, which reduced to 2,172 in 2022, a 24.16% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 20.86 in 2010 to 16.18 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny thefts decreased from 0.56% in 2010 to 0.44% in 2022, indicating that the city's reduction in larceny theft outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been less consistent. There were 378 incidents in 2010, which decreased to a low of 230 in 2014 but then rose again to 334 in 2022. This represents an overall decrease of 11.64% from 2010 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly decreased from 2.75 in 2010 to 2.49 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.30% to 0.22% over this period, suggesting that despite some fluctuations, the city has managed to keep motor vehicle theft rates lower than the state average.
Arson cases in the city have shown considerable volatility. In 2010, there were 13 arson incidents, which peaked at 66 in 2016 before declining to 33 in 2022. This represents a 153.85% increase from 2010 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.09 in 2010 to 0.25 in 2022. The city's proportion of state arson cases rose from 0.21% in 2010 to 0.53% in 2022, indicating that arson has become a more significant issue in the city relative to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $68,172 in 2013 to $95,134 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it is anticipated that overall property crime rates will continue to decrease slightly, with burglary and larceny theft likely to show the most significant reductions. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize or show a modest decrease. However, arson rates may continue to fluctuate or potentially increase, requiring targeted prevention efforts.
In conclusion, Pasadena has made substantial progress in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. The city's efforts have generally outpaced statewide trends, indicating effective local crime prevention strategies. However, the rise in arson cases presents a new challenge that may require focused attention in the coming years. As the city continues to experience economic growth, it is well-positioned to further enhance public safety and maintain its status as a desirable place to live and visit.
