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Osceola, Missouri: Property Crime Trends Amid Population Growth and Rising Incomes
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Osceola, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2011 to 2021, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 29 incidents in 2012 to 10 in 2021, representing a 65.5% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 1,153 in 2011 to 1,445 in 2021, an increase of 25.3%.
Burglary rates in the city showed significant variability over the years. In 2012, there were 6 burglaries, which decreased to 2 by 2021, a 66.7% reduction. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 4.48 in 2012 to 1.38 in 2021. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics fluctuated, ranging from 0.01% to 0.03% of the state's total, indicating a relatively small but persistent impact on overall state burglary figures.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated a downward trend. The highest recorded number was 19 in 2013, which decreased to 7 in 2021, a 63.2% reduction. In terms of population-adjusted rates, larceny-theft decreased from 14.88 per 1,000 people in 2013 to 4.84 per 1,000 in 2021. The city's share of state larceny-theft remained relatively low, consistently at or below 0.02% of the state total, suggesting minimal impact on statewide larceny-theft statistics.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed considerable fluctuation. The highest number recorded was 7 in 2012, which decreased to 1 in 2021, an 85.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 5.23 in 2012 to 0.69 in 2021. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics varied, peaking at 0.05% in 2012 and decreasing to 0.01% by 2021, indicating a diminishing impact on state figures over time.
Arson incidents were rare in the city, with only one reported case in 2016, accounting for 12% of the state's arson cases that year. This singular event stands out as an anomaly in the city's crime statistics, with no other arson cases reported in the available data set.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $23,882 in 2013 to $43,436 in 2021, there was a general downward trend in property crimes. This suggests a potential inverse relationship between economic prosperity and property crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, we might expect to see burglary and larceny-theft incidents stabilize at around 1-3 cases per year, while motor vehicle theft could potentially remain at 0-1 incidents annually. However, these predictions assume continuation of current socioeconomic trends and law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Osceola has demonstrated a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, with significant reductions across most categories. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has remained relatively small, indicating that local crime trends have minimal impact on overall state figures. The apparent correlation between rising median incomes and declining crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further contribute to crime reduction in the coming years.
