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Orrville, Ohio: Significant Property Crime Reduction Amid Stable Population
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Orrville, located in Ohio, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in this small urban center decreased significantly by 64.33%, dropping from 157 incidents to 56. This substantial reduction occurred against a backdrop of relatively stable population, which saw a minor decrease of 0.68% from 9,597 to 9,532 residents during the same period.
The burglary trend in the city shows a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 34 burglary incidents, which decreased to just 8 in 2022, representing a 76.47% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.54 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.84 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this significant drop in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.03% and 0.07% of the state total. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing burglaries, similar trends may be occurring statewide.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a substantial decrease. In 2010, there were 120 larceny-theft incidents, which dropped to 47 in 2022, a 60.83% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 12.50 in 2010 to 4.93 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's larceny-theft incidents remained relatively consistent, ranging from 0.04% to 0.08% over the years. This stability in the state percentage, despite the local decrease, might indicate that the city's efforts to reduce larceny-theft have been somewhat more effective than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low throughout the period. In 2010, there were 3 incidents, and this number fluctuated minimally, ending at 1 incident in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.31 in 2010 to 0.10 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained minimal, never exceeding 0.04% of the state total. This low and stable rate suggests that motor vehicle theft has not been a significant issue for the city compared to other property crimes.
Arson incidents in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. The highest number recorded was 2 incidents in 2011, 2012, and 2014, while many years saw no arson cases at all. The rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.21. The city's contribution to state arson incidents fluctuated widely, from 0% in some years to as high as 0.14% in others. This volatility is likely due to the low absolute numbers, where a single incident can significantly impact the statistics.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $46,095 in 2013 to $60,818 in 2022, property crime incidents decreased from 122 to 56. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city could see its total property crime incidents decrease further to approximately 40-45 per year. This forecast assumes a continuation of the current downward trend and stable socioeconomic conditions.
In summary, Orrville has experienced a significant and consistent reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend has occurred alongside modest population changes and improvements in median income. The city's share of state crime has remained relatively stable for most categories, suggesting that local efforts to reduce property crime have been effective. These findings highlight the importance of continued focus on economic development and community-based crime prevention strategies in maintaining and furthering these positive trends in Orrville.
