Robbery trends in the city show a consistent absence of incidents. From 2010 to 2020, there were no reported robberies. This translates to a robbery rate of 0 per 1,000 people throughout the period, regardless of population changes. The percentage of state crime for robbery remained at 0%, suggesting that the city did not contribute to Missouri's robbery statistics during this time.

Aggravated assault incidents varied over the years. The number of cases ranged from 0 to 6, with the highest number recorded in 2016. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2016 at approximately 6.22, coinciding with the highest number of incidents and a population of 964. The percentage of state crime for aggravated assault fluctuated, reaching its highest at 0.04% in 2016, indicating a relatively small but noticeable contribution to the state's statistics that year.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As population density decreased from 667 per square mile in 2010 to 604 per square mile in 2020, violent crime incidents generally showed a downward trend, with some fluctuations. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between median rent and violent crime rates. As median rent increased from $714 in 2013 to $823 in 2020, violent crime incidents showed some variability but generally remained low.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall downward trend observed in recent years. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that the city may experience between 0 to 2 violent crime incidents annually, with a possible further decrease in the aggravated assault rate.

In summary, Orrick has demonstrated a relatively stable and low violent crime environment over the past decade. The most significant discoveries include the consistent absence of murders and robberies, sporadic occurrences of rape, and fluctuating but generally low rates of aggravated assault. The overall downward trend in violent crime, coupled with decreasing population and density, suggests a potentially improving safety situation in the city. However, continued monitoring and community engagement will be crucial in maintaining and potentially improving upon these trends in the coming years.