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Orange City's Violent Crime Trends: A Decade of Change in a Growing Community
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Orange City, Florida, a small but growing community, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 2.63%, from 38 to 39 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 15.13%, from 18,442 to 21,232 residents, indicating that crime rates have not kept pace with population growth.
Murder trends in the city have remained relatively low and stable. Between 2010 and 2022, there were only two reported murders, one in 2013 and another in 2017. This translates to a murder rate of approximately 0.05 per 1,000 people in those years, with no murders reported in most years. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city has been minimal, peaking at 0.18% in 2013 and 0.16% in 2017. These figures suggest that murder is not a significant concern for the community, especially given the population growth.
Rape incidents have shown some variability over the years. The highest number of reported rapes was 10 in 2016, representing a rate of 0.50 per 1,000 people. In 2022, there were 4 reported rapes, a rate of 0.19 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state rape statistics has fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.26% in 2016 and standing at 0.24% in 2022. While these numbers are concerning, they do not show a clear upward trend relative to population growth.
Robbery rates in the city have seen a general decline. In 2010, there were 11 robberies (0.60 per 1,000 people), which decreased to 4 in 2022 (0.19 per 1,000 people). This represents a significant drop in both absolute numbers and per capita rates. The city's share of state robberies has fluctuated but remained relatively low, peaking at 0.14% in 2022. This downward trend in robberies is a positive sign for community safety.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of incidents peaked at 53 in 2011 (2.83 per 1,000 people) but has since decreased to 31 in 2022 (1.46 per 1,000 people). The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases has varied, reaching a high of 0.24% in 2022. While the overall trend shows a decrease, the recent uptick in 2022 warrants attention.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,359 per square mile in 2010 to 2,716 in 2022, violent crime rates per capita generally decreased, suggesting that the growing population may have had a stabilizing effect on crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential slight increase in overall violent crimes, primarily driven by population growth. However, the per capita rate is expected to remain stable or potentially decrease further if current trends continue.
In summary, Orange City has shown resilience in managing violent crime rates despite significant population growth. The most notable improvements have been in robbery rates, while aggravated assault remains the primary concern. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has remained relatively low across all categories. As the community continues to grow, maintaining and enhancing crime prevention strategies will be crucial to ensure the safety and well-being of its residents.
