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Opp, Alabama: Property Crime Trends and Economic Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Opp, Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 27.5%, from 193 to 140 incidents. During this same period, the population experienced a slight increase of 3.4%, growing from 8,582 to 8,878 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant fluctuations over the years. In 2010, there were 17 burglaries reported, which increased to 38 in 2017, representing a 123.5% rise. However, by 2022, the number decreased to 24, a 36.8% reduction from the 2017 peak. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.98 in 2010 to 4.58 in 2017, before declining to 2.70 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries rose dramatically from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.21% in 2022, indicating that while local burglaries decreased, they became a larger portion of statewide incidents.
Larceny-theft trends show a general decline over the observed period. In 2010, there were 168 reported cases, which decreased to 109 in 2022, representing a 35.1% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents fell from 19.58 in 2010 to 12.28 in 2022. Despite this local decrease, the city's contribution to statewide larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, shifting only slightly from 0.23% in 2010 to 0.23% in 2022.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown variability. From 8 incidents in 2010, it dropped to zero in 2011, then rose again to 14 in 2021, before settling at 7 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 0.93 in 2010 to 1.63 in 2021, and 0.79 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.10% in 2022, suggesting that local efforts to combat this crime may have been more effective than statewide measures.
Arson data is limited, with only one reported case in 2021, representing 0.76% of state arsons that year. In 2022, no arsons were reported. The sporadic nature of this crime in the city makes it difficult to establish clear trends or correlations with population changes.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 362 per square mile in 2010 to 350 in 2017, property crimes also saw a reduction from 193 to 140 incidents. This suggests a potential link between lower population density and reduced property crime rates. Additionally, as the median income increased from $36,154 in 2013 to $45,909 in 2021, property crimes decreased, indicating a possible inverse relationship between income levels and property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the observed patterns, burglaries are expected to stabilize around 20-25 incidents annually, larceny-theft may continue its downward trend to approximately 90-100 cases per year, and motor vehicle thefts are likely to remain in the single digits. However, these predictions should be viewed cautiously, as local economic conditions and law enforcement strategies can significantly influence crime rates.
In summary, Opp has experienced a general decline in property crime rates over the past decade, despite a slight population increase. The most significant reductions were observed in larceny-theft, while burglary and motor vehicle theft showed more variability. These trends, coupled with increasing median income and stable homeownership rates, suggest an improving overall safety and economic picture for the city. However, the city's increasing share of state burglaries warrants continued attention from local law enforcement and community leaders to ensure this trend does not reverse in the coming years.
