The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in Old City shows some correlation. As interest rates remained low from 2010 to 2016, hovering around 0.1% to 0.4%, the homeownership rate remained relatively stable. However, as interest rates began to rise in 2017, reaching 2.16% by 2019, the homeownership rate dipped slightly to 22%. Interestingly, despite a significant increase in interest rates to 1.68% in 2022, the neighborhood saw a surge in homeownership to 32%, suggesting other factors may have influenced this trend.

Renter occupancy in Old City has generally been high, ranging from 70% to 78% between 2013 and 2022. The average rent prices have shown a dramatic increase over this period. In 2013, the average rent was $756, which remained relatively stable until 2018 at $836. However, there was a sharp increase to $2,100 in 2019, followed by further rises to $2,189 in 2021. This substantial jump in rent prices coincided with a period of population growth, from 1,652 residents in 2013 to 2,228 in 2019, potentially driving up demand for rental properties.

Looking at the most recent data, the average home price in Old City was $578,236 in 2023, with a further decrease to $562,905 in 2024. This represents a significant cooling of the market compared to the peak prices seen in 2020. Concurrently, federal interest rates have risen sharply to 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, which may be contributing to the downward pressure on home prices.

Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, it is anticipated that average home prices in Old City may continue to experience moderate declines or stabilization in the short term, influenced by the current high interest rate environment. However, given the neighborhood's desirability and historical price appreciation, a gradual recovery and modest growth could be expected in the latter part of the 5-year period. Average rent prices are likely to remain high but may see more modest increases compared to the dramatic jumps observed in recent years, as the market adjusts to economic conditions and housing supply changes.

In summary, Old City has witnessed substantial changes in its housing market, characterized by fluctuating homeownership rates, significant appreciation in average home prices, and a sharp increase in average rent prices. The recent cooling of the housing market, coupled with rising interest rates, suggests a potential shift in the neighborhood's real estate dynamics. These trends highlight the complex interplay between economic factors, population changes, and housing affordability in shaping the neighborhood's residential landscape.