Robbery trends in Oakland have shown a notable improvement. In 2010, there were 2,917 robberies, which decreased to 2,736 in 2022, a 6.2% reduction. When adjusted for population, the robbery rate per 1,000 residents decreased more significantly from 7.45 in 2010 to 6.35 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide robberies has fluctuated, peaking at 10.25% in 2013 before decreasing to 6.52% in 2022. This trend suggests that Oakland has made progress in addressing robbery, although it still accounts for a disproportionate share of the state's incidents given its population size.

Aggravated assault in Oakland has seen an increase over the years. In 2010, there were 2,942 aggravated assaults, which rose to 3,329 in 2022, a 13.2% increase. When adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents increased from 7.51 in 2010 to 7.73 in 2022. The city's share of state-wide aggravated assaults has remained relatively stable, ranging from 2.74% to 4.36%, with the 2022 figure at 3.26%. This suggests that while Oakland has seen an increase in aggravated assaults, the trend is somewhat consistent with state-wide patterns.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 6,998 per square mile in 2010 to 7,693 in 2022, violent crime rates generally followed an upward trend. Additionally, there is a notable correlation between rising median rent prices and fluctuations in violent crime. The median rent increased from $1,117 in 2013 to $1,838 in 2022, coinciding with periods of both increases and decreases in various violent crime categories.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it is estimated that Oakland may see a continued slight increase in overall violent crimes. Murders are projected to potentially reach 130-135 annually, while robberies may stabilize around 2,700-2,800 cases per year. Aggravated assaults could see the most significant increase, potentially reaching 3,500-3,600 cases annually.

In summary, Oakland's violent crime landscape presents a mixed picture. While some categories like robbery have shown improvement, others such as murder and aggravated assault have increased. The city continues to contribute disproportionately to California's violent crime statistics in several categories, indicating ongoing challenges. The correlations between crime rates, population density, and rising housing costs suggest complex socio-economic factors at play. As Oakland continues to grow and evolve, addressing these crime trends will likely remain a critical focus for city officials and community leaders.