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Northside Neighborhood in Missoula: Rising Home Values and Shifting Ownership Patterns
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Northside, a neighborhood in Missoula, Montana, has experienced significant changes in homeownership rates and property values over the past decade. Known for its diverse community and proximity to downtown, Northside has seen a general trend towards increased homeownership, rising from 34% in 2013 to 54% in 2022. This shift has been accompanied by a substantial increase in average home prices, while average rent prices have shown fluctuations with an overall upward trend. The relationship between homeownership rates and average home prices in Northside demonstrates a notable correlation. In 2013, when homeownership was at 34%, the average home price was $167,213. By 2022, as homeownership increased to 54%, average home prices rose dramatically to $392,838. This represents a 135% increase in average home values over nine years, coinciding with a 20 percentage point increase in homeownership. The most significant jump occurred between 2020 and 2021, with average home prices surging from $258,591 to $328,590, a 27% increase in just one year.
Federal interest rates have played a crucial role in shaping homeownership trends in Northside. The period from 2013 to 2020 saw historically low interest rates, ranging from 0.09% to 0.38%. This low-interest environment likely contributed to the steady increase in homeownership, making mortgages more affordable for potential buyers. The sharp rise in homeownership from 46% in 2020 to 54% in 2022 coincided with interest rates remaining relatively low at 1.68% in 2022, still favorable for home purchases despite beginning to rise.
Renter percentages in Northside have inversely mirrored the homeownership trend, decreasing from 66% in 2013 to 46% in 2022. Average rent prices have not shown a consistent correlation with this trend. In 2013, the average rent was $923, and it fluctuated over the years, reaching $998 in 2021 before slightly decreasing to $987 in 2022. The highest average rent of $992 was recorded in 2020 when the renter percentage was 54%. These fluctuations suggest that factors beyond supply and demand, such as local economic conditions and housing policies, may influence rent prices in Northside.
Recent data shows that average home prices in Northside continued to rise, reaching $405,099 in 2023 and $414,993 in 2024. This represents a 3.1% increase from 2022 to 2023 and a further 2.4% increase from 2023 to 2024. Simultaneously, federal interest rates have risen significantly, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. These higher interest rates may impact future homeownership trends and property values in the neighborhood.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, average home prices in Northside are anticipated to continue rising, albeit at a more moderate pace. Given the recent slowdown in price appreciation and higher interest rates, average home prices are projected to reach approximately $450,000 to $475,000 by 2029. For average rent prices, considering the historical fluctuations and the potential impact of increased homeownership, a gradual increase to around $1,100 to $1,200 per month by 2029 is expected.
In summary, Northside has experienced a significant shift towards homeownership over the past decade, accompanied by substantial increases in average home prices. The neighborhood has benefited from a low-interest-rate environment, which has supported the transition from a renter-majority to an owner-majority community. While rent prices have shown less consistent trends, they have generally increased over time. The recent rise in interest rates and the continued appreciation of home values will likely shape the future of Northside's housing market, potentially moderating both homeownership growth and price appreciation in the coming years.
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