Motor vehicle theft in the city showed fluctuations but ultimately decreased over the 12-year period. From 48 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 35 in 2022, a 27.1% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.38 to 0.75. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.8% in 2010 to 0.52% in 2022, suggesting that the local reduction was more pronounced than the state average. This improvement could be due to better vehicle security systems or targeted policing efforts.

Arson data for the city is limited, with only two years providing reportable figures. In 2011, there were 3 arsons reported, and in 2022, the number remained at 3. The percentage of state arsons increased slightly from 0.54% in 2011 to 0.56% in 2022. Given the sporadic nature of the data, it's challenging to draw definitive conclusions about arson trends in the city.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,959 per square mile in 2010 to 2,605 in 2022, property crime rates decreased, suggesting that higher density did not lead to increased crime. The median income rose from $57,745 in 2013 to $71,980 in 2022, which could have contributed to the reduction in property crimes, particularly burglaries and larceny-theft. The percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable, hovering around 68-69% between 2013 and 2022, which may have contributed to community stability and lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to stabilize at around 60-70 incidents per year, while larceny-theft may continue to decline slowly, potentially reaching about 350-375 cases annually. Motor vehicle thefts are likely to remain relatively stable, fluctuating between 30-40 incidents per year.

In summary, Northport has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-theft. This improvement, occurring alongside population growth and increasing median income, suggests a positive trajectory for public safety in the community. The city's ability to maintain lower crime rates while experiencing substantial population growth is particularly noteworthy and may serve as a model for other growing urban areas seeking to enhance public safety.