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Northglenn, Colorado: Property Crime Trends Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Northglenn, Colorado, a suburban community located in the Denver metropolitan area, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 48.5%, rising from 1,047 to 1,555 incidents. During this same period, the city's population grew by 10.8%, from 44,325 to 49,124 residents, indicating that crime rates have outpaced population growth.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a general downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 150 burglaries reported, which decreased to 152 by 2022, representing a slight 1.3% increase overall but with significant fluctuations in between. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 3.38 in 2010 to 3.09 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries has remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.65% to 0.89% throughout the period. This suggests that while burglary rates have generally declined, the city's contribution to state burglary figures has remained consistent.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, has shown an upward trend. In 2010, there were 785 reported cases, which increased to 992 by 2022, representing a 26.4% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 17.71 in 2010 to 20.19 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny theft incidents has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.85% and 1.13%. This indicates that the increase in larceny theft has been somewhat proportional to the city's population growth and consistent with statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft has seen a significant increase over the years. In 2010, there were 112 reported cases, which rose dramatically to 411 by 2022, representing a 267% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents surged from 2.53 in 2010 to 8.37 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has fluctuated, reaching a peak of 1.91% in 2017 before decreasing to 1% in 2022. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft has become a growing concern in the city, its contribution to state figures has varied over time.
Arson cases have shown considerable volatility. In 2010, there were 6 reported cases, which increased to 26 by 2022, representing a 333% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.14 in 2010 to 0.53 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases has fluctuated significantly, ranging from 0% to 2.26%. This indicates that arson, while relatively rare, has become more prevalent in recent years and the city's contribution to state figures has increased.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate positive correlation between the increase in property crimes and the rise in median income, which grew from $62,726 in 2013 to $72,680 in 2022. Additionally, the slight decrease in the percentage of owner-occupied housing units from 53% in 2013 to 51% in 2019, followed by an increase to 56% in 2022, seems to have some correlation with fluctuations in property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued upward trajectory for overall property crimes, with motor vehicle theft and larceny theft likely to be the primary drivers. If current trends persist, the city could potentially see property crime rates increase by 15-20% from 2022 levels by 2029.
In summary, Northglenn has faced challenges with rising property crime rates, particularly in larceny theft and motor vehicle theft, over the past decade. While burglary rates have remained relatively stable, the significant increases in other categories have outpaced population growth. The city's changing demographics and economic conditions appear to have some influence on these trends. As Northglenn continues to evolve, addressing these property crime challenges will be crucial for maintaining community safety and quality of life for its residents.
