Motor vehicle theft in the city showed more volatility but ultimately increased over the period. In 2010, there were 14 reported cases, which rose to 26 in 2022, an 85.7% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.44 in 2010 to 0.85 in 2022. Despite this increase, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.09% to 0.13% over the 12-year period. This trend may warrant closer attention from local law enforcement to address the rising incidence of vehicle thefts.

Arson cases in the city have fluctuated significantly over the years. From 2 cases in 2010, the number peaked at 18 in 2014 before settling at 5 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.06 in 2010 to 0.16 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases rose dramatically from 0.35% in 2010 to 1.08% in 2022. This volatile trend in arson cases, particularly the spike in 2014, may require further investigation into potential causes and prevention strategies.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in overall property crime rates coincides with a slight increase in median income, which rose from $56,833 in 2013 to $69,691 in 2022. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 67% in 2013 to 70% in 2022. These trends suggest that improved economic conditions and higher rates of homeownership may contribute to lower property crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in property crime rates. Based on the current trends, it's projected that by 2029: - Burglaries may decrease to around 20 incidents per year - Larceny-theft could drop to approximately 230 cases annually - Motor vehicle theft might stabilize at around 30 incidents per year - Arson cases are expected to remain low, potentially averaging 3-4 cases annually

In summary, North Tonawanda has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The correlation between rising income levels, increased homeownership, and declining crime rates suggests that economic stability plays a role in community safety. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts and the volatility in arson cases highlight areas that may require targeted interventions. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends while addressing emerging challenges will be crucial for ensuring the long-term safety and well-being of its residents.