North Central, a neighborhood in University City, Missouri, has experienced significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. The area has seen notable shifts in homeownership rates and fluctuations in average home and rent prices, reflecting broader economic trends and local market conditions. This analysis examines the dynamic relationship between homeownership, property values, and economic factors in North Central from 2013 to 2024. The homeownership rate in North Central has shown a general declining trend from 2013 to 2019, followed by a significant rebound in recent years. In 2013, the homeownership rate stood at 71%, gradually decreasing to 58% by 2019. However, there was a sharp increase to 67% in 2020, which has remained relatively stable through 2022 at 64%. This trend in homeownership rates has an interesting relationship with average home prices in the neighborhood. In 2013, when homeownership was at its peak, the average home price was $69,102. As homeownership declined, average home prices generally increased, reaching $103,175 in 2019. The sudden rise in homeownership in 2020 coincided with a continued increase in average home prices, which reached $107,933 that year.

The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in North Central follows some expected patterns. For instance, the low interest rates from 2013 to 2015 (ranging from 0.11% to 0.13%) coincided with relatively high homeownership rates of 70-71%. As interest rates began to rise from 2016 to 2019 (reaching 2.16% in 2019), homeownership rates declined to their lowest point of 58%. Interestingly, the sharp increase in homeownership in 2020 occurred as interest rates dropped dramatically to 0.38%, likely making home purchases more attractive to potential buyers.

Renter percentages in North Central have generally mirrored the inverse of homeownership trends. From 2013 to 2019, the percentage of renters increased from 28% to 42%, coinciding with a period of rising average rent prices. In 2013, the average rent was $1,078, which increased to $1,104 by 2019. However, as homeownership rebounded in 2020, the renter percentage decreased to 33%, where it remained through 2021. Despite this decrease in renters, average rent prices continued to rise, reaching $1,148 in 2021. The population of North Central has been declining over this period, from 6,454 in 2013 to 5,132 in 2022, which may have influenced the rental market dynamics.