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Mount Vernon's Property Crime Decline: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Mount Vernon, a city in New York State, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 29.4%, from 1,584 to 1,119 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 6.4%, from 67,397 to 71,717 residents, indicating a notable improvement in overall property crime rates relative to population growth.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 354 burglaries, which decreased to 103 in 2022, representing a 70.9% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.25 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.44 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.89% in 2010 to 0.45% in 2022, suggesting improved local burglary prevention compared to the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a significant decrease. In 2010, there were 1,052 larceny thefts, which reduced to 864 in 2022, a 17.9% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 15.61 in 2010 to 12.05 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny thefts declined from 0.60% to 0.45% over the same period, indicating a faster rate of improvement compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 178 motor vehicle thefts, which decreased to 85 in 2014, but then rose again to 152 in 2022. Despite this fluctuation, the overall trend shows a 14.6% decrease from 2010 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 2.64 in 2010 to 2.12 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 1.16% to 0.73%, suggesting that while local rates have fluctuated, they've improved relative to state trends.
Arson cases in the city have shown considerable variation. In 2010, there were 5 reported arsons, which increased to a peak of 15 in 2020, before dramatically dropping to 1 in 2022. This represents an 80% decrease from 2010 to 2022. The arson rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.07 in 2010 to 0.01 in 2022. The city's proportion of state arsons fluctuated significantly, from 0.88% in 2010 to a high of 2.79% in 2020, before falling to 0.22% in 2022.
A strong correlation exists between property crime trends and median income. As median income increased from $49,395 in 2013 to $68,075 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 1,436 to 1,119. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Mount Vernon could see a further 15-20% reduction in overall property crimes if current trends continue. Burglaries and larceny thefts are expected to maintain their downward trajectory, while motor vehicle thefts may stabilize or slightly decrease. Arson cases are projected to remain low but may fluctuate due to their already small numbers.
In conclusion, Mount Vernon has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. The city has shown particular improvement in burglary and larceny theft prevention, while also making progress in motor vehicle theft reduction. These positive trends, coupled with rising median incomes, suggest a generally improving quality of life for residents. However, ongoing vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial to maintain and further enhance these positive developments in the coming years.
