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Mount Airy's Property Crime Decline: Birthplace of Andy Griffith Sees Significant Improvements
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Mount Airy, a city in North Carolina, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 54.35%, from 620 to 283 incidents. During this same period, the population increased slightly by 2.87%, from 16,639 to 17,117 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 187 burglaries, which decreased to 67 by 2022, representing a 64.17% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 11.24 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 3.91 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.35% in 2010, dropping to 0.20% in 2017, and then rising slightly to 0.27% in 2022. This overall decline suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased significantly over the period. In 2010, there were 406 cases, which dropped to 187 by 2022, a 53.94% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 24.40 in 2010 to 10.92 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.31% in 2010 to 0.16% in 2022, indicating a more substantial improvement compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed more variability. There were 27 incidents in 2010, which increased to 47 in 2017 before decreasing to 29 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 1.62 in 2010 to 1.69 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.26% in 2010 to 0.56% in 2017, then decreased to 0.20% in 2022, suggesting local factors may have influenced these fluctuations.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively low but showed some variation. There were 4 cases in 2010, peaking at 8 in 2012, and then decreasing to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 0.24 in 2010 to 0.18 in 2022. The city's proportion of state arson cases fluctuated significantly, from 0.39% in 2010 to a high of 0.91% in 2015, before settling at 0.34% in 2022.
A notable correlation exists between the declining property crime rates and the increasing median income in the city. From 2013 to 2021, the median income rose from $32,892 to $47,170, a 43.41% increase, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced criminal activity.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (until 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to maintain their downward trends, potentially reaching rates of 2.5 and 8 per 1,000 residents, respectively. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize around 1.5 per 1,000 residents, while arson cases are likely to remain low but fluctuate slightly.
In summary, Mount Airy has seen a substantial reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. This improvement, coupled with rising median incomes, suggests a positive trajectory for the city's safety and economic well-being. However, continued vigilance and adaptive strategies will be crucial to maintain and further improve these trends in the coming years.
