Robbery trends in Morrow show significant fluctuations. The number of robberies peaked at 41 in 2016, representing 0.67% of the state's total. By 2022, this number had decreased to 13, accounting for 0.59% of Georgia's robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.36 in 2010 to 0.76 in 2022, indicating an overall improvement despite yearly variations. This downward trend in robberies is a positive sign for the city's safety efforts.

Aggravated assault cases in Morrow have shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 7 cases, representing 0.06% of the state's total. By 2022, this number had increased to 27, accounting for 0.2% of Georgia's aggravated assaults. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.5 in 2010 to 1.57 in 2022, a substantial increase that outpaced population growth. This trend suggests a growing issue with violent confrontations in the city.

Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some notable patterns. The increase in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults, appears to correlate with the rising population density, which increased from 4,004 people per square mile in 2010 to 4,916 in 2022. Additionally, there's a correlation between the changing racial demographics and crime trends. As the Black population percentage increased from 54% in 2017 to 57% in 2022, and the Asian population grew from 11% in 2013 to 18% in 2022, violent crime rates also showed an upward trend.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Morrow may see a continued increase in violent crimes, particularly in aggravated assaults. The murder rate is likely to remain relatively low but could see sporadic increases. Robberies may continue their downward trend, while rape incidents could remain inconsistent but potentially decrease with improved prevention and reporting mechanisms.

In summary, Morrow has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape from 2010 to 2022. The most significant concerns are the rising rates of aggravated assaults and the sporadic occurrence of murders, which have outpaced population growth. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts and increasing population density, suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies. While improvements in robbery rates offer a positive note, the overall increase in violent crimes underscores the importance of comprehensive community safety initiatives in Morrow's future development plans.