Morristown's Property Crime Decline: A Decade of Improvement Despite Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
DATA SOURCE
Morristown, a historic town in New Jersey, has experienced notable shifts in property crime rates alongside population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 456 to 195, representing a 57.2% reduction. During this same period, the population increased from 18,435 to 20,126, a growth of 9.2%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 95 burglaries, which dropped to just 9 in 2022, marking a 90.5% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.15 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.45 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.55% in 2010 to 0.19% in 2022, indicating that burglary rates in Morristown have improved more rapidly than the state average. This significant reduction suggests enhanced security measures or improved socioeconomic conditions in the area.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, has also seen a considerable decrease. In 2010, there were 347 larceny thefts, which reduced to 167 in 2022, a 51.9% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 18.82 in 2010 to 8.30 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of larceny thefts decreased, the city's share of state larceny thefts fluctuated, decreasing from 0.73% in 2010 to 0.46% in 2022. This suggests that while larceny theft has decreased in Morristown, the reduction rate is somewhat in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. In 2010, there were 14 motor vehicle thefts, which increased to 19 in 2022, a 35.7% increase. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents only marginally increased from 0.76 in 2010 to 0.94 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts doubled from 0.14% in 2010 to 0.29% in 2022, indicating that this type of crime has become relatively more prevalent in Morristown compared to state averages.
Arson cases in the city have been relatively low and inconsistent over the years. The data shows sporadic occurrences, with no clear trend. The highest number reported was 2 cases in both 2017 and 2019, while many years reported zero cases. Due to the low numbers, calculating meaningful rates or percentages for arson is not statistically significant.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in overall property crime rates coincides with a significant increase in median income, which rose from $103,749 in 2013 to $117,506 in 2022. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes. Additionally, the stable homeownership rate, hovering around 37% throughout the period, may have played a role in maintaining community stability and reducing crime.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, we can forecast that property crime rates in Morristown are likely to continue their overall downward trajectory over the next five years (up to 2029). Burglary rates are expected to remain low, potentially stabilizing around 5-10 cases annually. Larceny theft is predicted to continue its gradual decline, potentially reaching around 140-150 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft, however, may see a slight increase, potentially reaching 22-25 cases annually if current trends persist.
In summary, Morristown has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime rates from 2010 to 2022, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. This positive trend coincides with population growth and increasing median income, suggesting a correlation between improved economic conditions and reduced property crime. While motor vehicle theft has shown a slight increase, it remains relatively low compared to other property crimes. These trends paint a picture of a city that has made substantial progress in enhancing public safety and quality of life for its residents over the past decade, with promising indicators for continued improvement in the coming years.
