Robbery trends in the city have been minimal. There were two reported robberies in 2010, constituting 0.01% of the state's total. Following this, robbery incidents dropped to zero for several years until 2020, when one case was reported, representing 0.01% of the state's robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 people was 0.34 in 2010 and 0.15 in 2020, showing a decrease despite the single incident in the latter year. This suggests that robbery remains a rare occurrence in the community.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents fluctuated over the years, from 10 cases in 2010 (0.04% of state total) to a low of 4 cases in 2015 (0.02% of state total), before rising again to 11 cases in 2018 and 2019 (0.04% of state total each year). In 2020, there were 6 reported cases (0.02% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people varied accordingly, from 1.69 in 2010 to 0.61 in 2015, peaking at 1.65 in 2018 and 2019, before dropping to 0.88 in 2020. These fluctuations indicate that aggravated assault remains a concern, albeit at relatively low levels compared to larger urban areas.

When examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, a notable relationship emerges with population density. As the population density increased from 1,524 per square mile in 2010 to 1,765 per square mile in 2020, there was a general downward trend in violent crime, particularly in aggravated assaults. This suggests that the city has managed to maintain relatively low crime rates despite increasing urbanization.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now in 2024), we can anticipate that if current trends continue, the city may experience: - Continued low to zero incidents of murder - Sporadic occurrences of rape, potentially averaging 0-1 cases per year - Infrequent robbery incidents, likely remaining at 0-1 cases per year - Aggravated assaults fluctuating between 5-10 cases annually, with potential for slight increases correlating with population growth

In summary, Monticello has demonstrated a generally positive trend in violent crime rates over the past decade, with most categories showing stability or decrease despite population growth. The city's ability to maintain low crime rates, particularly for serious offenses like murder and robbery, speaks to the effectiveness of local law enforcement and community initiatives. However, the fluctuations in aggravated assault cases suggest a need for continued vigilance and targeted prevention strategies to ensure the safety and well-being of Monticello's residents in the coming years.