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Montebello's Violent Crime Surge: A Decade of Rising Assaults Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Montebello, a city in California, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 53.3%, from 214 to 328 incidents. During this same period, the city's population decreased slightly by 1.1%, from 64,538 to 63,832 residents.
The murder rate in Montebello has shown significant variability over the years. In 2010, there were 3 murders, representing 0.21% of the state's total. This figure fluctuated, reaching a peak of 6 murders in 2018 (0.44% of the state's total), before declining to 2 murders in 2022 (0.12% of the state's total). When adjusted for population, the murder rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.046 in 2010 to 0.031 in 2022, despite the overall decrease in incidents. This suggests that while the absolute number of murders has decreased, the rate relative to the population has remained relatively stable.
Rape incidents in the city have shown an upward trend. In 2010, there were 10 reported rapes (0.15% of the state's total), which increased to 18 in 2022 (0.15% of the state's total). The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.155 in 2010 to 0.282 in 2022, indicating a significant increase in the prevalence of this crime relative to the population.
Robbery trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 92 robberies (0.18% of the state's total), which remained relatively stable with 92 incidents in 2022 (0.22% of the state's total). However, the rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 1.425 in 2010 to 1.441 in 2022, suggesting a marginal increase in robbery risk relative to the population.
Aggravated assault has seen the most dramatic increase. In 2010, there were 109 incidents (0.14% of the state's total), which nearly doubled to 216 in 2022 (0.21% of the state's total). The rate per 1,000 residents rose sharply from 1.688 in 2010 to 3.383 in 2022, indicating a significant escalation in this type of violent crime.
There appears to be a strong correlation between the increase in violent crime and changes in population density. As the population density increased from 7,749 per square mile in 2010 to 7,664 in 2022, violent crime rates also rose. This suggests that even small changes in urban density may impact crime rates.
Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the rise in violent crime and shifts in racial demographics. The Hispanic population increased from 78% in 2013 to 79% in 2022, while the white population decreased from 9% to 7% during the same period. This demographic shift coincides with the overall increase in violent crime, though it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Montebello may see: - A potential stabilization or slight decrease in murders, possibly to 1-2 per year - An increase in reported rapes to approximately 25-30 incidents annually - Robbery rates remaining relatively stable at around 90-100 incidents per year - A continued rise in aggravated assaults, potentially reaching 250-300 incidents annually
In summary, Montebello has experienced a significant increase in violent crime over the past decade, particularly in aggravated assaults and rapes. While murders have decreased, the overall trend shows a city grappling with rising violent crime rates against a backdrop of slight population decline and demographic shifts. These trends underscore the complex interplay between urban density, demographic changes, and crime rates in shaping the city's safety landscape.
