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Mira Mesa, Arizona: Rising Home Values and Ownership Trends in a Growing Neighborhood
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Mira Mesa, located in Mesa, Arizona, is a neighborhood that has experienced significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. This area has seen a general trend of increasing homeownership rates, rising average home prices, and fluctuating average rent prices. The neighborhood's unique character is reflected in its evolving demographics and housing dynamics.
The relationship between homeownership rates and average home prices in Mira Mesa shows a generally positive correlation. In 2013, the homeownership rate was 77%, with an average home price of $194,009. By 2017, homeownership reached its peak at 89%, coinciding with an average home price of $264,756. This trend suggests that as home values increased, more residents were able or willing to purchase homes. However, there was a slight decrease in homeownership to 79% by 2022, despite the average home price rising to $492,512, indicating a potential shift in affordability or market dynamics.
Federal interest rates have played a role in homeownership trends in Mira Mesa. The period from 2013 to 2016 saw very low interest rates (ranging from 0.09% to 0.4%), which coincided with an increase in homeownership from 77% to 83%. As interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, there was a slight decline in homeownership rates, settling at 79% in 2022. This pattern aligns with the general principle that lower interest rates tend to encourage homeownership due to more affordable financing options.
The trends in renter percentages and average rent prices in Mira Mesa have shown some interesting patterns. In 2013, 23% of residents were renters, with an average rent of $1,480. The renter percentage decreased to a low of 11% in 2017, with average rent at $1,375. However, by 2022, the renter percentage increased back to 21%, with average rent rising to $1,521. This fluctuation could be attributed to changes in the local economy, housing availability, or shifts in population demographics. The population growth from 1,611 in 2013 to 3,439 in 2022 may have also influenced these rental market dynamics.
Looking at the most recent data, the average home price in Mira Mesa decreased slightly from $492,512 in 2022 to $467,469 in 2023, showing a minor correction in the housing market. However, in 2024, the average home price has rebounded to $478,454, indicating a stabilization trend. Concurrently, federal interest rates have risen significantly, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, which could impact future homebuying decisions in the neighborhood.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in Mira Mesa will continue to show moderate growth, potentially reaching around $550,000 by 2029. Average rent prices are expected to follow a similar upward trajectory, possibly increasing to approximately $1,800 per month. These projections are based on historical trends and current market conditions.
In summary, Mira Mesa has demonstrated a complex interplay between homeownership rates, average home prices, and rental market dynamics. The neighborhood has generally seen an increase in homeownership and property values over the past decade, with some recent stabilization. The impact of rising interest rates and population growth will likely continue to shape the housing market in this area, potentially affecting affordability and homeownership rates in the coming years.
