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Millville's Violent Crime Trends: A Decade of Fluctuation and Recent Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Millville, located in New Jersey, has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 17.8%, from 169 to 139 incidents. During this same period, the city's population saw a slight decline of 2.2%, from 28,133 to 27,523 residents.
The murder rate in the city has shown significant variability over time. In 2010, there was 1 murder, representing 0.036 murders per 1,000 people. This number peaked in 2014 with 5 murders (0.175 per 1,000 people) before declining to 1 murder in 2022 (0.036 per 1,000 people). The city's percentage of state murders fluctuated, reaching a high of 2.08% in 2014 and dropping to 0.69% in 2022. This volatility suggests that while murders are relatively rare, they can have a significant impact on the city's crime statistics when they occur.
Rape incidents in the city have shown a concerning trend. In 2010, there were 7 reported rapes (0.249 per 1,000 people), which increased to 22 in 2016 (0.775 per 1,000 people). By 2022, the number decreased to 12 (0.436 per 1,000 people). The city's share of state rape cases rose from 1.34% in 2010 to 1.82% in 2022, indicating that rape has become a more significant issue relative to the rest of the state.
Robbery trends show a notable improvement. In 2010, there were 58 robberies (2.06 per 1,000 people), peaking at 119 in 2013 (4.16 per 1,000 people). By 2022, this number had dramatically decreased to 26 (0.945 per 1,000 people). The city's percentage of state robberies increased from 0.7% in 2010 to 1.08% in 2022, suggesting that while robberies have decreased overall, they remain a concern relative to state levels.
Aggravated assaults have shown fluctuation over the years. In 2010, there were 103 incidents (3.66 per 1,000 people), reaching a high of 143 in 2011 (5.06 per 1,000 people). By 2022, the number decreased to 100 (3.63 per 1,000 people). The city's share of state aggravated assaults increased from 1.19% in 2010 to 1.77% in 2022, indicating that this remains a significant issue relative to state levels.
There appears to be a correlation between violent crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 669 people per square mile in 2010 to 655 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall violent crime. Additionally, there seems to be a relationship between crime rates and racial distribution. As the white population percentage increased from 60% in 2013 to 62% in 2022, there was a general decrease in violent crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the overall violent crime rate to continue its downward trend, albeit at a slower pace. Murders are likely to remain low but variable, while rape incidents may stabilize around current levels. Robberies are expected to continue decreasing, potentially reaching historic lows. Aggravated assaults may show slight fluctuations but are likely to remain relatively stable.
In conclusion, Millville has made progress in reducing violent crime over the past decade, particularly in robberies. However, challenges remain, especially concerning rape and aggravated assault rates relative to state levels. The city's changing demographics and population density appear to have some influence on crime trends. Moving forward, focused efforts on addressing these specific areas of concern could further improve the city's safety and quality of life for its residents.
