Robbery incidents have shown a significant downward trend. The number of robberies dropped from 27 in 2014 to just 3 in 2022, an impressive 88.9% decrease. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.53 in 2014 to 0.15 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's robbery cases has also decreased, from 0.72% in 2014 to 0.23% in 2022, suggesting a substantial improvement in this category of violent crime.

Aggravated assault cases have fluctuated but show an overall decreasing trend. The number of incidents dropped from 54 in 2012 to 23 in 2022, a 57.4% decrease. When adjusted for population, the rate fell from 3.20 per 1,000 residents in 2012 to 1.18 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's percentage of state aggravated assault cases has remained relatively low, peaking at 0.51% in 2012 and decreasing to 0.2% by 2022.

There appears to be a correlation between the city's increasing population density and the overall reduction in violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,187 per square mile in 2010 to 1,364 per square mile in 2022, violent crime rates generally decreased. This suggests that the city may have implemented effective crime prevention strategies or community policing efforts as it grew denser.

Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between changes in racial demographics and violent crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 73% in 2013 to 63% in 2022, and the black population percentage increased slightly from 21% to 23% over the same period, violent crime rates generally decreased. This suggests that the city's increasing diversity has not led to an increase in violent crime, contrary to some common misconceptions.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it is forecasted that violent crime rates in Millbrook will continue to decrease over the next five years (up to 2029). The overall violent crime rate is expected to potentially drop below 1.5 incidents per 1,000 residents by 2029 if current trends persist. Murder rates are likely to remain low, potentially averaging less than one incident per year. Rape and robbery rates are projected to continue their downward trend, possibly reaching less than 0.2 incidents per 1,000 residents each. Aggravated assault rates may stabilize around 1 incident per 1,000 residents or potentially decrease further.

In summary, Millbrook has demonstrated a promising trend of decreasing violent crime rates across all categories from 2010 to 2022, despite population growth. The city's contribution to state crime percentages has generally decreased, indicating improved safety relative to the rest of Alabama. The correlation between increasing population density and decreasing crime rates suggests effective urban planning and law enforcement strategies. As the city continues to grow and diversify, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the ongoing safety and well-being of its residents.