Robbery trends have been more volatile. There were 8 robberies in 2010, which peaked at 18 in 2013, before decreasing to 13 in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people slightly increased from 0.608 in 2010 to 0.862 in 2022. The city's percentage of state robberies fluctuated but overall increased from 0.02% to 0.03%, indicating a slight rise in the city's contribution to state robbery statistics.

Aggravated assault cases have shown a modest increase. In 2010, there were 53 cases, which rose to 55 in 2022, a 3.77% increase. However, when considering population growth, the rate per 1,000 people actually decreased slightly from 4.026 in 2010 to 3.649 in 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assaults remained relatively stable, decreasing marginally from 0.07% to 0.05%.

A strong correlation exists between the increase in violent crimes and population growth. As the population density increased from 4,328 per square mile in 2010 to 4,957 in 2022, violent crimes also trended upward. There's also a notable correlation between the rise in violent crimes and the slight decrease in the Hispanic population percentage, which fell from 94% in 2019 to 91% in 2022.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, we anticipate a continued increase in overall violent crimes. By 2029, the total number of violent crimes is projected to reach approximately 95-100 incidents annually, assuming current trends persist and no significant interventions are implemented.

In summary, McFarland has experienced a concerning increase in violent crimes, particularly in murders and rapes, outpacing its population growth. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has grown in several categories, suggesting a need for targeted crime prevention strategies. The correlation between demographic shifts and crime rates underscores the complex interplay of social factors influencing public safety in this evolving urban environment.