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Mayfield Heights, Ohio: Violent Crime Trends Amidst Demographic Shifts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Mayfield Heights, Ohio, a small city of 4.18 square miles, has experienced notable changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with 19 incidents reported in 2010, decreasing to 12 in 2019, and then rising to 15 in 2022, representing a 21.05% decrease overall. During this same period, the population grew from 19,106 in 2010 to 20,127 in 2022, a 5.34% increase.
Murder rates in the city have remained remarkably low, with only one reported case in 2017, representing 0.18% of the state's total murders that year. This translates to a rate of 0.053 murders per 1,000 people in 2017. In all other years with available data (2010-2012, 2018-2019, and 2022), there were no reported murders, indicating an exceptionally safe environment in terms of homicide risk.
Rape incidents have shown a concerning upward trend. While there were no reported cases in 2010-2012 and 2018, the city saw 1 case each in 2017 and 2019, rising sharply to 4 cases in 2022. This increase represents 0.1% of the state's total rapes in 2022, up from 0.03% in 2019. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0 in 2018 to 0.199 in 2022, a significant jump that warrants attention from local law enforcement and community leaders.
Robbery trends have fluctuated over the years. The city reported 8 robberies in 2010, peaking at 10 in 2011, then declining to 1 in 2018, before rising again to 4 in 2022. As a percentage of state totals, robberies ranged from 0.01% in 2018 to 0.07% in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.419 in 2010 to 0.199 in 2022, showing an overall improvement despite recent upticks.
Aggravated assault cases have shown variability. There were 11 cases in 2010, dropping to 3 in 2011, then rising to 8 in 2012 and 2019, before settling at 7 in 2022. As a percentage of state totals, aggravated assaults ranged from 0.03% in 2011 and 2018 to 0.09% in 2010. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.576 in 2010 to 0.348 in 2022, indicating a general downward trend despite fluctuations.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between changing demographics and violent crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 79% in 2013 to 65% in 2022, and the black population increased from 10% to 17% over the same period, there was a slight uptick in overall violent crimes. The Hispanic population also grew from 2% to 6% during this time. Additionally, the rise in population density from 4,563 per square mile in 2013 to 4,828 in 2022 coincides with the recent increase in violent crimes, particularly rape cases.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Mayfield Heights may see a continued slight increase in overall violent crimes, with rape and robbery potentially showing the most significant rises. The total number of violent crimes could reach approximately 18-20 annually, assuming current demographic and density trends continue.
In summary, while Mayfield Heights has maintained a relatively low violent crime rate compared to state averages, the recent upticks in specific categories, particularly rape, warrant close monitoring. The changing demographic composition and increasing population density appear to be factors influencing these trends. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining community safety and addressing emerging crime patterns will be crucial for preserving the quality of life for its residents.
