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Maplewood, Missouri: Declining Violent Crime Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Maplewood, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, with a notable decrease from 35 incidents in 2010 to 24 in 2022, representing a 31.4% reduction. During this same period, the population grew slightly from 8,196 in 2010 to 8,161 in 2022, a modest 0.4% decrease.
Examining murder trends, the city has maintained remarkably low rates. Between 2010 and 2022, there were only three years (2010, 2012, and 2022) where a single murder was reported, with the remaining years showing zero incidents. This translates to a rate that fluctuates between 0 and 0.12 murders per 1,000 residents. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city has remained consistently low, peaking at 0.32% in 2012 and 0.19% in 2022. These figures suggest that murder is an infrequent occurrence in the city, with no discernible trend over time.
Rape incidents in the city have shown variability without a clear trend. The number of reported rapes ranged from 0 to 4 annually, with the highest incidence in 2015 and 2016 (4 cases each year). The rate per 1,000 residents has fluctuated between 0 and 0.5. The city's contribution to state rape cases has been relatively small, peaking at 0.21% in 2015 and 2016. The inconsistent pattern makes it challenging to draw definitive conclusions about rape trends in the city.
Robbery incidents have shown a general declining trend. From a high of 16 incidents in 2011, 2015, and 2016, robberies decreased to just 2 in 2022. This represents a significant drop from 1.97 robberies per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 0.25 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies has also decreased from 0.28% in 2011 and 2015 to 0.07% in 2022, indicating a substantial improvement in this area of violent crime.
Aggravated assault, the most common violent crime in the city, has shown fluctuations over the years. The number of incidents peaked at 31 in both 2018 and 2020, before decreasing to 19 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents has varied from a high of 3.89 in 2018 to 2.33 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases has remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.09% to 0.19% over the years, with 0.11% recorded in 2022.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a modest relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 5,237 per square mile in 2010 to 5,214 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall violent crime incidents. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 76% in 2013 to 71% in 2022, and the percentage of residents identifying as two or more races increased from 3% to 10%, there was a general downward trend in violent crime incidents.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city could see a further reduction in violent crime incidents. Robberies are likely to remain low, potentially averaging 1-2 cases annually. Aggravated assaults may continue to decrease, potentially reaching an average of 15-18 incidents per year. Murder rates are expected to remain very low, with most years likely seeing zero incidents. Rape cases are more difficult to predict due to their variability but may stabilize at an average of 1-2 cases annually.
In summary, Maplewood has shown a generally positive trend in violent crime reduction over the past decade. The most significant improvements have been seen in robbery rates, while murder rates have consistently remained very low. Aggravated assault, while fluctuating, has shown a recent downward trend. These trends, coupled with the city's changing demographics and stable population, suggest a potentially safer future for Maplewood residents, with violent crime rates likely to continue their overall decline in the coming years.
