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Lyell-Otis: Rising Home Values and Shifting Ownership in Rochester's Resilient Neighborhood
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Loading Content...
Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Lyell-Otis, a neighborhood in Rochester, New York, has experienced significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. This area has seen fluctuations in homeownership rates, alongside notable changes in average home prices and average rent prices, reflecting broader economic trends and local market conditions.
The homeownership rate in Lyell-Otis has shown a general decline from 2013 to 2019, followed by a modest recovery. In 2013, 48% of residents owned their homes, but this figure dropped to 40% by 2019. However, there was a rebound to 44% by 2022. This trend in homeownership correlates with average home prices. In 2013, the average home price was $46,619, which steadily increased to $102,573 by 2022, representing a substantial 120% increase over this period. The most dramatic rise occurred between 2020 and 2021, with average home prices jumping from $77,120 to $95,226, a 23.5% increase in just one year.
Federal interest rates appear to have influenced homeownership rates in Lyell-Otis. The period of historically low interest rates from 2013 to 2016, hovering around 0.1%, coincided with relatively stable homeownership rates. However, as interest rates began to rise from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.83% in 2018, homeownership rates declined. Interestingly, the slight recovery in homeownership from 2020 to 2022 occurred despite rising interest rates, suggesting other factors were at play in the local market.
Rental trends in Lyell-Otis show an inverse relationship with homeownership rates. The percentage of renters increased from 52% in 2013 to a peak of 59% in 2019, before slightly decreasing to 56% in 2022. Average rent prices have generally trended upward, rising from $836 in 2013 to $945 in 2022, an increase of 13%. However, this increase was not consistent, with fluctuations such as a peak of $978 in 2017 and a dip to $879 in 2019. The population of Lyell-Otis has also fluctuated, reaching 10,741 in 2022, which may have influenced rental demand and prices.
Looking at the most recent data, the average home price in Lyell-Otis slightly decreased to $101,125 in 2023 but is projected to rise to $108,609 in 2024. This occurs against the backdrop of significantly higher federal interest rates, which rose to 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. These higher interest rates could potentially impact homebuying affordability and market dynamics in the coming years.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in Lyell-Otis will continue to rise, potentially reaching around $120,000 by 2029. This projection is based on the historical growth rate and assumes a continuation of current economic conditions. For average rent prices, we expect a more moderate increase, potentially reaching approximately $1,100 by 2029, reflecting the historical trend of steady but slower growth in rental costs compared to home prices.
In summary, Lyell-Otis has experienced a complex interplay between homeownership rates, average home prices, and rental trends. The neighborhood has seen a significant appreciation in home values, particularly in recent years, while rental prices have increased more modestly. The recovery in homeownership rates since 2020, despite rising interest rates, suggests a resilient local housing market. As we look to the future, continued growth in both home prices and rents is anticipated, though the rate of increase may be moderated by higher interest rates and other economic factors.
