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Lower Greenlaw Estates: Rising Home Values and Fluctuating Ownership Rates in a Flagstaff Neighborhood
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Lower Greenlaw Estates, a neighborhood in Flagstaff, Arizona, has experienced significant changes in homeownership rates and property values over the past decade. The area has seen a general trend of increasing average home prices, while ownership percentages have fluctuated. Average rent prices have also shown an upward trajectory, reflecting the dynamic nature of the local real estate market.
The relationship between homeownership rates and average home prices in Lower Greenlaw Estates has been complex. In 2013, the neighborhood had a homeownership rate of 43%, with an average home price of $187,823. As average home prices steadily increased, reaching $252,831 by 2016, the homeownership rate rose dramatically to 60%. This trend continued until 2018, when homeownership peaked at 79% with average home prices at $299,447. However, from 2019 onwards, despite continued growth in average home prices, homeownership rates began to decline. By 2022, the ownership rate had decreased to 55%, while average home prices reached $466,010, indicating a potential affordability challenge for prospective buyers.
Federal interest rates have played a significant role in homeownership trends. The period from 2013 to 2016 saw historically low interest rates, ranging from 0.11% to 0.4%, which likely contributed to the sharp increase in homeownership during this time. As interest rates began to rise more steadily from 2017 (1%) to 2019 (2.16%), we observe a corresponding decline in homeownership rates. The brief drop in interest rates in 2020 (0.38%) and 2021 (0.08%) may have temporarily supported homeownership, but the subsequent rapid increase to 1.68% in 2022 aligns with the continued decrease in ownership rates.
Renter percentages and average rent prices have shown an inverse relationship to homeownership trends. In 2013, 57% of residents were renters, with an average rent of $1,198. As homeownership increased, the percentage of renters decreased to a low of 21% in 2018, while average rent rose to $1,204. However, from 2019 to 2022, as homeownership rates declined, the renter population grew from 22% to 45%. During this period, average rent prices increased significantly, reaching $1,614 in 2022. This trend suggests that as home prices and interest rates rose, more residents may have opted for renting, despite increasing rental costs.
In 2023 and 2024, the real estate market in Lower Greenlaw Estates continued to evolve. Average home prices experienced a slight increase from $469,111 in 2023 to $486,356 in 2024. This modest growth rate of approximately 3.7% indicates a potential stabilization in the market compared to the more rapid increases seen in previous years. Concurrently, federal interest rates rose from 5.02% in 2023 to 5.33% in 2024, potentially impacting homebuying decisions and affordability.
Looking ahead, predictive models suggest that average home prices in Lower Greenlaw Estates may continue to rise over the next five years, albeit at a more moderate pace. Based on historical trends and current market conditions, average home prices could potentially reach around $550,000 by 2029. Average rent prices are also expected to increase, potentially surpassing $1,800 per month within the same timeframe. However, these projections are subject to various economic factors and local market dynamics.
In summary, Lower Greenlaw Estates has witnessed significant fluctuations in homeownership rates, correlating with changes in average home prices and federal interest rates. The neighborhood has experienced a general trend of increasing property values and rent prices, with recent years showing a shift towards a higher percentage of renters. As the market continues to evolve, balancing affordability with property value appreciation will likely remain a key challenge for this Flagstaff community.
