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Louisville, Ohio: A Small City's Declining Violent Crime Amid Population Changes
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Louisville, located in Ohio, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime numbers, with a notable decrease from 7 incidents in 2010 to 4 in 2022, representing a 42.9% reduction. During this same timeframe, the population saw modest growth, increasing from 16,979 in 2010 to 16,816 in 2022, a 0.96% decrease.
Examining murder trends, Louisville maintained a consistent record of zero murders throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the absence of murder cases is particularly noteworthy given the population fluctuations. The murder rate per 1,000 people remained at zero, and the city's contribution to the state's murder statistics was consistently 0% throughout the years.
Rape incidents in the city showed some variability over time. The highest number of reported rapes was 6 in 2015, while several years, including 2010, 2012, 2013, 2017, 2018, and 2020, saw no reported cases. The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2015 at 0.36 and was zero in the years with no reported cases. The city's contribution to the state's rape statistics varied, with the highest percentage being 0.22% in 2015 and 0% in years with no incidents.
Robbery trends in Louisville fluctuated over the years. The highest number of robberies reported was 3 in 2011, while 2017 and 2018 saw no robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0 to 0.18, with the highest rate in 2011. The city's contribution to the state's robbery statistics remained relatively low, peaking at 0.02% in several years, including 2011, 2013, 2016, and 2020.
Aggravated assault cases showed significant variation. The highest number of incidents was 10 in 2016, while the lowest was 1 in 2011. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0.06 in 2011 to 0.59 in 2016. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics was highest in 2016 at 0.08% and lowest in 2011 at 0.01%.
When examining correlations, a notable relationship emerges between population density and violent crime rates. As population density increased from 2,950 per square mile in 2022 to 3,056 in 2018, there was a corresponding rise in violent crime incidents from 4 to 9 during the same period. This suggests that higher population density may be associated with increased violent crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the overall decreasing trend observed from 2010 to 2022, we can anticipate a continued gradual decline in violent crime incidents. The model suggests that by 2029, the total number of violent crimes could potentially decrease to around 2-3 incidents per year, assuming current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement efforts remain consistent.
In summary, Louisville has demonstrated a general decline in violent crime over the past decade, with notable fluctuations in specific categories. The absence of murders, coupled with varying rates of rape, robbery, and aggravated assault, paints a picture of a city that has made progress in overall safety but still faces challenges in certain areas of violent crime. The correlation between population density and crime rates highlights the importance of urban planning and community-based interventions in maintaining public safety as the city continues to evolve.
