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Longwood, Florida: Violent Crime Trends Show Significant Improvement Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Longwood, located in Florida, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total violent crimes, dropping from 75 incidents in 2010 to 50 in 2022, representing a 33.3% decrease. This decline in violent crime occurred alongside a population growth of 11.9%, from 21,768 in 2010 to 24,358 in 2022.
Murder rates in the city have remained relatively low, fluctuating between 0 and 1 incident per year. In 2010, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2022, there was one murder reported, while in other years, there were none. The murder rate per 1,000 people has remained consistently low, ranging from 0 to 0.04. However, the percentage of state crime for murder has shown volatility, ranging from 0% in years with no murders to 0.4% in 2022. This suggests that while murders are rare in the city, when they do occur, they represent a noticeable portion of the state's total.
Rape incidents have shown some variation over the years. The number of reported rapes increased from 2 in 2010 to a peak of 10 in 2015, before declining to 8 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.09 in 2010 to 0.45 in 2015, then decreased to 0.33 in 2022. The percentage of state crime for rape increased significantly from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.48% in 2022, indicating that rape incidents in the city have become a larger proportion of the state's total over time.
Robbery trends show a general decline. The number of robberies decreased from 15 in 2010 to 12 in 2022, with some fluctuations in between. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.69 in 2010 to 0.49 in 2022. Interestingly, despite the overall decrease in robberies, the percentage of state crime for robbery increased from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.42% in 2022, suggesting that robberies in the city have become a larger proportion of the state's total.
Aggravated assault incidents have shown a significant decline. The number of cases dropped from 57 in 2010 to 29 in 2022, a 49.1% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.62 in 2010 to 1.19 in 2022. The percentage of state crime for aggravated assault increased slightly from 0.16% in 2010 to 0.22% in 2022, indicating that despite the local decrease, the city's contribution to state totals has grown marginally.
There appears to be a correlation between the decrease in violent crime and the changing racial demographics of the city. As the white population percentage decreased from 74% in 2013 to 63% in 2022, and the Hispanic population increased from 13% to 23% over the same period, violent crime rates generally declined. This suggests that the city's increasing diversity may be associated with lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), violent crime in the city could further decrease by approximately 15-20%. This prediction assumes that current socio-economic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain relatively consistent.
In summary, Longwood has experienced a notable decrease in violent crime over the past decade, particularly in aggravated assaults and robberies. This positive trend has occurred despite population growth and demographic changes. The city's contribution to state crime percentages has increased in some categories, particularly rape and robbery, which may warrant further attention from local law enforcement. Overall, the declining crime rates, coupled with population growth and increasing diversity, paint a picture of a city that is becoming safer and more vibrant.
