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Long Branch, NJ: Violent Crime Decline Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Long Branch, located in New Jersey, is a coastal community with a rich history dating back to the 19th century. Over the past decade, the city has experienced notable changes in its violent crime rates alongside population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 44.6%, from 112 to 62 incidents. During the same period, the population increased by 3.5%, from 30,852 to 31,932 residents.
The murder rate in Long Branch has fluctuated over the years, with significant variations. In 2010, there was 1 murder, representing 0.36% of the state's total. The rate peaked in 2017 with 5 murders (2.31% of the state's total) but dropped to zero in 2019, 2020, and 2022. When considering the population, the murder rate per 1,000 people reached its highest point in 2017 at 0.16 and its lowest in years with no murders. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city has been inconsistent, ranging from 0% to 2.68% in 2015. This volatility suggests that while murders are relatively rare in the city, they can have a significant impact on state percentages when they do occur.
Rape incidents in the city have shown an overall increasing trend. In 2010, there were 5 reported rapes (0.95% of the state's total), which increased to 11 in 2022 (1.67% of the state's total). The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.16 in 2010 to 0.34 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's total rape cases has generally increased over time, indicating that this crime has become a more significant issue relative to other areas in New Jersey.
Robbery cases have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 47 robberies (0.56% of the state's total), which decreased to 7 in 2022 (0.29% of the state's total). The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 1.52 in 2010 to 0.22 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies has also decreased, suggesting that Long Branch has made progress in reducing this type of crime compared to other parts of New Jersey.
Aggravated assault incidents have fluctuated but show an overall decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 59 cases (0.68% of the state's total), which decreased to 44 in 2022 (0.78% of the state's total). The rate per 1,000 people fell from 1.91 in 2010 to 1.38 in 2022. Despite the overall decrease in numbers, the city's contribution to state totals has slightly increased, indicating that the reduction in aggravated assaults may not be as pronounced as in other areas of the state.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 6,020 per square mile in 2010 to 6,231 in 2022, overall violent crime rates decreased. This suggests that increased urbanization has not led to higher crime rates in this case. There appears to be a correlation between changes in racial distribution and crime rates. As the white population percentage increased from 51% in 2016 to 56% in 2022, violent crime rates decreased. Conversely, as the Hispanic population decreased from 30% in 2016 to 22% in 2022, violent crime rates also fell.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decrease in violent crimes. Based on the current trends, we can expect: - Murder rates to remain low, potentially fluctuating between 0-2 cases per year. - Rape incidents may continue to increase slightly, potentially reaching 13-15 cases per year. - Robbery cases are likely to stabilize at the current low levels, possibly ranging from 5-10 incidents annually. - Aggravated assaults may continue their gradual decline, potentially dropping to 35-40 cases per year.
In summary, Long Branch has shown a generally positive trend in reducing violent crime over the past decade, particularly in robberies and aggravated assaults. However, the increase in rape cases remains a concern that may require focused attention. The city's changing demographics appear to have some correlation with crime rates, suggesting that social and economic factors play a role in public safety. As Long Branch continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends while addressing persistent challenges will be crucial for the community's well-being and safety.
