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Lincoln's Rising Home Values: A Decade of Growth in the White Mountains
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Loading Content...
Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Lincoln, New Hampshire, a charming community nestled in the heart of the White Mountains, has experienced significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. The overall trend shows an increase in homeownership, rising average home prices, and varying average rent prices. This analysis examines these trends and their implications for the local housing market.
Homeownership rates in Lincoln have shown a general upward trend, particularly in recent years. In 2013, the homeownership rate was 65%, which remained stable through 2014. However, there was a notable dip to 58% in 2016 before rebounding to 63% in 2018. From 2019 onwards, there was a significant increase in homeownership, reaching 75% by 2022. This rise in homeownership coincides with a substantial increase in average home prices. In 2013, the average home price was $167,734, which remained relatively stable until 2015. From 2015 to 2022, there was a dramatic rise in average home prices, with the value more than doubling from $176,531 to $367,595.
The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in Lincoln follows some expected patterns. The period of low interest rates from 2013 to 2016 (ranging from 0.09% to 0.40%) coincided with relatively stable homeownership rates. As interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 (1%) to 2019 (2.16%), there was initially a slight decrease in homeownership. However, despite rising interest rates, homeownership rates in Lincoln increased substantially from 2019 to 2022, suggesting that other local factors may have had a stronger influence on homeownership decisions than interest rates alone.
Renter percentages in Lincoln have shown an inverse relationship to homeownership rates, naturally decreasing as homeownership increased. The renter percentage peaked at 42% in 2016, coinciding with the lowest homeownership rate. Since then, it has steadily decreased, reaching 25% by 2022. Average rent prices have fluctuated over the years, showing no consistent correlation with renter percentages. In 2013, the average rent was $805, rising to $881 in 2018. Interestingly, there was a significant drop to $327 in 2019, followed by a sharp increase to $1,100 by 2022. This volatility in rent prices could be influenced by factors such as changes in the local economy, housing supply, or shifts in the type of rental properties available.
In 2023 and 2024, the housing market in Lincoln continued its upward trajectory. The average home price reached $390,113 in 2023 and further increased to $431,123 in 2024, representing a 17.6% increase over two years. This growth occurred despite rising federal interest rates, which reached 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, suggesting strong local demand for housing in the area.
Looking ahead, based on the observed trends, we can forecast continued growth in average home prices in Lincoln over the next five years. Assuming a similar rate of increase as seen in recent years, average home prices could potentially reach around $550,000 by 2029. Rent prices, given their recent volatility, are more challenging to predict. However, if the upward trend continues, average rent could potentially exceed $1,500 per month within the next five years.
In summary, Lincoln has experienced a significant increase in homeownership rates and average home prices over the past decade, particularly from 2019 onwards. This trend has persisted even in the face of rising interest rates, suggesting strong local factors driving the housing market. The rental market has shown more volatility, with decreasing renter percentages but fluctuating rent prices. The continued rise in home prices through 2024 indicates a robust housing market in Lincoln, with potential for further growth in the coming years.
