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Lakeview, Dayton: Rising Home Values and Ownership Rates Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Lakeview, a neighborhood in Dayton, Ohio, has experienced significant shifts in its housing market over the past decade. This area has seen notable changes in homeownership rates, average home prices, and average rent prices, reflecting broader economic trends and local market dynamics. The homeownership rate in Lakeview has shown a remarkable increase in recent years. In 2013, only 28% of residents owned their homes. This figure remained relatively stable until 2016 when it dipped to 21%. However, from 2017 onwards, there was a steady upward trend in homeownership. By 2022, the ownership rate had more than doubled to 51%. This surge in homeownership coincided with a significant increase in average home prices. In 2012, the average home price was $26,153, and it rose to $64,175 by 2022, representing a 145% increase over a decade.
The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in Lakeview shows an interesting pattern. As interest rates remained low from 2013 to 2016 (below 0.5%), homeownership initially decreased. However, as rates began to rise from 2017 (1%) to 2019 (2.16%), homeownership also started to increase. This trend continued even as interest rates dropped again in 2020 and 2021, suggesting that other factors were influencing homeownership decisions in Lakeview.
Renter percentages in Lakeview have inversely mirrored the homeownership trend. In 2013, 72% of residents were renters. This percentage peaked at 79% in 2016 before steadily declining to 49% in 2022. Interestingly, average rent prices have shown volatility during this period. Starting at $476 in 2013, rent prices peaked at $739 in 2020, then slightly decreased to $688 in 2021 before rising again to $739 in 2022. This fluctuation in rent prices, coupled with the declining renter population (from 1,830 in 2010 to 1,055 in 2022), suggests a complex interplay of supply and demand factors in the rental market.
Looking at the most recent data, the average home price in Lakeview decreased slightly to $62,444 in 2023 but rebounded to $64,678 in 2024. This occurred despite the federal interest rate rising to 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, indicating resilience in the local housing market despite higher borrowing costs.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate continued growth in average home prices, albeit at a potentially slower rate due to higher interest rates. The average home price could reach approximately $75,000 to $80,000 by 2029. For rent prices, the forecast suggests a moderate increase, potentially reaching an average of $800 to $850 per month by 2029, assuming the current economic conditions and local market trends persist.
In summary, Lakeview has experienced a significant shift towards homeownership, with average home prices more than doubling over the past decade. The rental market has seen a decline in the percentage of renters, although average rent prices have shown volatility. These trends, combined with the neighborhood's population decrease, suggest a transforming housing landscape in Lakeview, with potential implications for future development and community dynamics.
