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Lake Mary's Violent Crime Trends: A Decade of Low Murder Rates Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Lake Mary, Florida, a growing city, has experienced significant changes in its violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 24 incidents in 2010 to 21 incidents in 2022, representing a -12.5% change. During this same period, the population grew from 22,853 in 2010 to 26,099 in 2022, a 14.2% increase.
Murder rates in the city have remained remarkably low, with zero murders reported in every year from 2010 to 2022. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the population growth during this period. The murder rate per 1,000 people has consistently been 0, and the city's contribution to the state's murder statistics has been 0% throughout the years analyzed.
Rape incidents have shown some variability over time. In 2010, there was 1 reported case, which increased to a peak of 9 cases in 2017, before decreasing to 2 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, reaching a high of 0.36 per 1,000 in 2017 and dropping to 0.08 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's percentage of state rape cases also varied, peaking at 0.22% in 2017 and settling at 0.12% in 2022.
Robbery trends in the city have been relatively stable with some fluctuations. From 1 incident in 2010, cases rose to a high of 8 in 2011, then varied between 1 and 7 cases in subsequent years, ending with 5 robberies in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.35 in 2011 and was 0.19 per 1,000 in 2022. Notably, the city's contribution to state robbery statistics increased significantly from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.18% in 2022, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to state trends.
Aggravated assault has shown the most significant fluctuations among violent crimes in the city. From 22 cases in 2010, it peaked at 40 cases in 2015, then decreased to 14 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people followed a similar pattern, reaching a high of 1.61 per 1,000 in 2015 and dropping to 0.54 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assault cases varied, peaking at 0.13% in 2017 and settling at 0.11% in 2022.
There appears to be a moderate correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,518 per square mile in 2010 to 2,875 per square mile in 2022, there were fluctuations in violent crime rates, suggesting that higher density may contribute to increased crime incidents, though this relationship is not consistently strong.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential slight decrease in overall violent crime rates if current trends continue. Specifically, we might expect: - Murder rates to remain at or near zero - Rape incidents to stabilize around 2-4 cases per year - Robbery cases to potentially decrease slightly, averaging 3-4 incidents annually - Aggravated assault to potentially continue its downward trend, possibly averaging 12-15 cases per year
In summary, Lake Mary has maintained relatively low violent crime rates despite population growth. The city has seen fluctuations in specific crime categories, with aggravated assault showing the most variability. The consistent absence of murders and the recent downward trends in other violent crimes suggest that Lake Mary is managing public safety effectively in the face of urban growth.
