Motor vehicle theft trends have been more erratic. The number of incidents fluctuated between 0 and 10 over the years, with 2 cases in 2010 increasing to 7 in 2022. Despite this numerical increase, the rate per 1,000 residents only rose slightly from 0.24 in 2010 to 0.89 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained minimal, never exceeding 0.01%. The low overall numbers suggest that motor vehicle theft is not a major concern for the community, though the recent uptick warrants attention.

Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. The highest number of incidents was 5 in 2016, with many years reporting zero cases. The arson rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.60 in 2016 but was 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson cases has been variable, reaching a high of 0.19% in 2016 but dropping to 0% in recent years. The inconsistent nature of arson incidents makes it difficult to discern a clear trend, but the low numbers generally indicate it is not a persistent problem.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The overall decline in property crimes coincides with a period of increasing median income, which rose from $36,161 in 2013 to $45,674 in 2022. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 69% in 2013 to 73% in 2022, potentially indicating greater community stability and investment, which could deter property crimes.

The racial composition of the city has also seen changes, with the Hispanic population increasing from 81% in 2013 to 91% in 2022, while the white population decreased from 18% to 8% during the same period. However, there is no clear correlation between these demographic shifts and property crime trends, as crime rates have generally decreased across all categories despite these changes.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries are projected to stabilize around 20-25 incidents annually, while larceny-theft may settle in the range of 100-120 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts could potentially increase slightly but are unlikely to exceed 15 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain rare, with 0-2 incidents per year.

In conclusion, La Feria has demonstrated a positive trend in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. This improvement, coupled with rising median incomes and homeownership rates, paints a picture of a community that has become safer and more stable. While some crime categories show fluctuations, the overall trajectory is encouraging. As the city moves forward, maintaining focus on community-based crime prevention and economic development could help sustain and further improve these positive trends in property crime reduction.