Motor vehicle theft trends in Kosciusko show a more complex pattern. The city reported zero motor vehicle thefts in 2010, 2011, and 2012. However, by 2022, there were 8 reported incidents, resulting in a rate of 0.8 per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.47% in 2022, suggesting a relative increase in this type of crime compared to state trends.

Arson cases in Kosciusko have been sporadic and low in number. There was one reported case in 2010 and two in 2020, but zero cases in most other years, including 2022. Given the low numbers, it's difficult to draw meaningful trends, but it's worth noting that when arson did occur, it represented a significant portion of state arson cases (0.33% in 2010 and 2.47% in 2020).

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in property crimes coincided with a decrease in population density, which fell from 1,566 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,305 in 2022. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates. The median income increased from $34,176 in 2013 to $39,646 in 2022, while property crimes decreased during this period.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend in property crimes. Based on the historical data and current trends, we can project that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could potentially decrease to around 80-90 incidents per year. However, this prediction assumes that current socio-economic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain relatively constant.

In summary, Kosciusko has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend has occurred despite the city maintaining or increasing its share of state crime rates in some categories, suggesting that local factors may be contributing to crime reduction more effectively than state-wide trends. The correlation between rising incomes and falling crime rates, along with changes in population density, provides valuable insights into the complex dynamics affecting property crime in the city. As Kosciusko looks to the future, maintaining and building upon these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the continued safety and well-being of its residents.