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Kirkwood, Missouri: Violent Crime Trends Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Kirkwood, Missouri, a suburban community in St. Louis County, has experienced significant changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city saw a 41.4% increase in total violent crimes, rising from 29 to 41 incidents, while its population grew by 5.5%, from 26,008 to 27,435 residents. This trend suggests a complex relationship between population growth and crime rates in the area.
Murder trends in Kirkwood have been sporadic, with most years reporting zero incidents. However, there were notable exceptions in 2013 and 2018, each recording one murder, and 2022 reporting two murders. The murder rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2022 at 0.07, up from 0 in most previous years. While murder remains rare in the city, there has been a slight upward trend in recent years.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with a peak of 8 cases in 2014 and a low of 0 in 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people reached its highest at 0.31 in 2014 and fell to 0 in 2022. The city's percentage of state rape cases has generally decreased, from 0.37% in 2010 to 0% in 2022. This downward trend in rape cases, particularly in recent years, is a positive development for the community.
Robbery incidents have shown a slight increase over time, from 5 cases in 2010 to 7 in 2021, before dropping to 3 in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.34 in 2016 and decreased to 0.11 in 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery cases has fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.22% in 2021 before declining to 0.1% in 2022. While there has been some variation, the overall trend suggests a recent decrease in robbery incidents.
Aggravated assault has seen the most significant increase among violent crimes. Cases rose from 20 in 2010 to 36 in 2022, an 80% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.77 in 2010 to 1.31 in 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assault cases has also grown, from 0.14% in 2010 to 0.21% in 2022. This upward trend in aggravated assaults is concerning and warrants attention from local law enforcement and community leaders.
There appears to be a relationship between the increase in violent crimes and the city's growing population density, which rose from 2,832 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,987 in 2022. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the rise in violent crimes and changes in racial composition. The percentage of white residents decreased from 89% in 2013 to 85% in 2022, while the percentage of residents identifying as two or more races increased from 1% to 6% during the same period.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued gradual increase in overall violent crimes if current trends persist. Aggravated assaults are likely to remain the most prevalent violent crime, potentially reaching around 40-45 incidents annually by 2029. Robbery rates may stabilize or slightly decrease, while rape incidents could continue to fluctuate but remain relatively low. Murder rates, while still rare, may see occasional incidents, potentially averaging 1-2 per year.
In summary, Kirkwood has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes over the past decade, particularly in aggravated assaults, despite its growing population and changing demographics. While some violent crime categories have shown improvement, the overall trend suggests a need for targeted interventions and community-based strategies to address the rising violent crime rates, especially aggravated assaults. The city's evolving demographic composition and increasing population density are factors that may continue to influence crime trends in the coming years.
