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Kirby's Violent Crime Surge: A Closer Look at Texas Town's Aggravated Assault Spike
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Kirby, Texas, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. With a population growth from 13,368 in 2010 to 15,650 in 2022, the city has experienced significant changes in its crime landscape. The most notable shift occurred in the total number of violent crimes, which saw a dramatic increase from 22 incidents in 2019 to 102 in 2022, representing a 363.64% rise. This substantial increase in violent crime coincided with a more modest population growth of 16.32% from 2010 to 2022.
The murder rate in Kirby has remained relatively low throughout the studied period. In 2013, the city reported 3 murders, accounting for 0.36% of the state's total, which translates to a rate of 0.21 murders per 1,000 residents. The following year saw a decrease to 1 murder (0.11% of the state's total), or 0.07 per 1,000 residents. Notably, from 2015 to 2022, no murders were reported in the city, indicating an improvement in this most serious category of violent crime despite the ongoing population growth.
Rape incidents in Kirby have shown some fluctuation over the years. In 2013, no rapes were reported. By 2017, there were 3 reported rapes (0.03% of the state's total), equating to 0.19 per 1,000 residents. In 2022, the number increased slightly to 4 reported rapes (0.04% of the state's total), or 0.26 per 1,000 residents. This represents a minor increase in both absolute numbers and rate per capita, though the percentage of the state total remained relatively stable.
Robbery trends in Kirby have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 3 robberies (0.01% of the state's total), or 0.22 per 1,000 residents. The highest number was recorded in 2017 with 16 robberies (0.06% of the state's total), or 1.04 per 1,000 residents. By 2022, robberies decreased to 3 (0.02% of the state's total), or 0.19 per 1,000 residents. This indicates an overall stability in robbery rates when accounting for population growth.
Aggravated assault has seen the most significant changes among violent crimes in the city. In 2010, there were 14 aggravated assaults (0.02% of the state's total), or 1.05 per 1,000 residents. This number rose dramatically to 101 in 2021 (0.14% of the state's total), or 6.66 per 1,000 residents. In 2022, there was a slight decrease to 95 aggravated assaults (0.13% of the state's total), equating to 6.07 per 1,000 residents. This substantial increase in aggravated assaults has been the primary driver of the overall rise in violent crime in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the rise in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults, and changes in population density. The population density increased from 6,683 per square mile in 2010 to 7,824 per square mile in 2022, coinciding with the rise in violent crime. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation with racial demographics, as the Hispanic population percentage increased from 52% in 2013 to 56% in 2022, while the white population decreased from 25% to 24% over the same period.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Kirby may see violent crime rates continue to rise, potentially reaching around 120-130 incidents per year if current trends persist. This projection assumes continued population growth and similar demographic shifts.
In summary, Kirby has experienced a significant increase in violent crime, primarily driven by a surge in aggravated assaults. While murder rates have remained low and robbery rates stable, the dramatic rise in aggravated assaults warrants attention. The correlations with population density and demographic changes suggest that as the city continues to grow and evolve, addressing factors contributing to violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults, should be a priority for local law enforcement and community leaders.
