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Jemison, Alabama: Violent Crime Trends and the Impact of Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Jemison, located in Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. With a population of 10,527 in 2022 and covering 11.35 square miles, this small city has experienced fluctuations in both its population and crime rates. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 7 to 17, representing a 142.86% increase. During the same period, the population grew by 4.36%, from 10,087 to 10,527.
The murder rate in the city has remained relatively low, with only two recorded incidents in 2013, accounting for 0.88% of the state's murders that year. This translates to approximately 0.21 murders per 1,000 residents in 2013. In all other reported years, there were no murders, indicating that homicide is not a persistent issue in the community. The spike in 2013 appears to be an anomaly rather than a trend, and the city has maintained a 0% contribution to the state's murder rate in most years.
Rape incidents have shown a concerning upward trend. In 2012, there were 2 reported rapes (0.20 per 1,000 residents), representing 0.24% of the state's total. By 2022, this number increased to 5 (0.47 per 1,000 residents), accounting for 0.57% of the state's rapes. This 150% increase in rape cases over a decade, outpacing population growth, suggests a need for targeted intervention and prevention strategies.
Robbery rates have fluctuated but show a slight overall increase. In 2011, there were 2 robberies (0.19 per 1,000 residents), representing 0.05% of the state's total. In 2022, the number remained at 2, but due to population changes, this represented 0.19 per 1,000 residents and 0.15% of the state's robberies. The consistent number of incidents despite population growth indicates a relatively stable robbery rate.
Aggravated assault, the most common violent crime in the city, has shown significant fluctuations. In 2010, there were 7 cases (0.69 per 1,000 residents), accounting for 0.12% of the state's total. This peaked in 2016 with 23 cases (2.44 per 1,000 residents), representing 0.21% of the state's assaults. By 2022, the number decreased to 10 (0.95 per 1,000 residents), accounting for 0.09% of the state's total. This recent decrease is a positive trend, though the overall rate remains higher than in 2010.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 889 per square mile in 2010 to 927 in 2022, there was a corresponding increase in overall violent crime. Additionally, the Hispanic population grew from 8% in 2013 to 15% in 2022, coinciding with the increase in violent crimes. However, it's crucial to note that correlation does not imply causation, and these demographic changes may be unrelated to crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a slight increase in violent crimes to approximately 20-22 incidents per year, assuming current trends continue. This forecast suggests a potential 17.6% to 29.4% increase from the 2022 levels.
In summary, Jemison has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime over the past decade. While murder rates have remained low, there are concerning trends in rape cases and fluctuations in aggravated assaults. The city's changing demographics and increasing population density appear to correlate with these crime trends. As the community continues to grow and change, focused efforts on crime prevention, particularly in addressing sexual violence and assault, will be crucial for maintaining public safety and improving quality of life for residents.
