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Howardville, Missouri: A Decade of Exceptionally Low Violent Crime Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Howardville, Missouri presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the past decade, this small community has experienced fluctuations in both population and crime rates. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes reported ranged from 0 to 1 per year, while the population decreased from 90 in 2010 to 62 in 2020, before rising again to 78 in 2022.
In examining murder trends, the data shows consistent zero incidents throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2020. This stability in the absence of murders is notable, especially given the population changes. The murder rate per 1,000 people remained at 0, and the percentage of state crime for murder was consistently 0% during this time. This suggests that despite its small size and demographic shifts, the city has maintained a remarkably safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape statistics for the city also show no reported incidents from 2010 to 2020. The rape rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state crime for rape both remained at 0% throughout this period. This consistent absence of reported rapes is significant, particularly when considering the fluctuations in population size and density over the years.
Robbery trends mirror those of murder and rape, with no reported incidents from 2010 to 2020. The robbery rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state crime for robbery both remained at 0% during this time. This consistent lack of robberies, despite changes in population and economic indicators such as median rent, suggests a community that has maintained a high level of property security.
Aggravated assault is the only category of violent crime that shows any activity in the data. There were two reported incidents: one in 2013 and another in 2019. In both years, this single incident represented 0.01% of the state's total aggravated assaults. The rate per 1,000 people was approximately 13.7 in 2013 (based on a population of 73) and 19.6 in 2019 (based on a population of 51). These isolated incidents stand out against the backdrop of zero reports in other years, potentially indicating random occurrences rather than a persistent trend.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime. As the population density decreased from 394 per square mile in 2010 to 223 per square mile in 2019, there was a slight increase in the likelihood of an aggravated assault occurring. However, this correlation is not strong enough to draw definitive conclusions, given the limited number of incidents.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the extremely low crime rates and sporadic nature of the few reported incidents. Based on historical data, it's reasonable to predict that the city will continue to experience very low violent crime rates, with the possibility of 0-1 aggravated assaults per year. Murder, rape, and robbery are likely to remain at zero, barring any significant changes in local conditions.
In summary, Howardville demonstrates an exceptionally low violent crime profile. The most significant finding is the consistent absence of murders, rapes, and robberies over a decade, despite population fluctuations. The rare occurrences of aggravated assault appear to be isolated incidents rather than indicative of a broader trend. This data paints a picture of a small community that has maintained a high level of safety and security for its residents, even as it has undergone demographic changes.
