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Home Values Soar in Carousel, San Bernardino: A Decade of Housing Market Shifts
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
The Carousel neighborhood in San Bernardino, California, has experienced significant shifts in its housing market over the past decade. This community has seen fluctuations in homeownership rates, average home prices, and average rent prices, reflecting broader economic trends and local market dynamics. The housing landscape in Carousel has undergone substantial changes, with noteworthy trends in homeownership and property values.
Homeownership rates in Carousel have shown a general decline from 2013 to 2022. In 2013, the homeownership rate stood at 17%, but by 2019, it had dropped to a low of 10%. However, there was a slight recovery to 15% by 2022. This trend coincides with a substantial increase in average home prices. In 2013, the average home price was $123,260, which more than tripled to $413,092 by 2022. This dramatic rise in home values may have contributed to the overall decrease in homeownership, as affordability became a growing concern for potential buyers.
The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in Carousel shows some correlation. From 2013 to 2015, when interest rates were at historic lows (0.11% to 0.13%), homeownership rates remained relatively stable around 16-17%. However, as interest rates began to rise from 2016 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, homeownership rates fluctuated more significantly, dropping to their lowest point in 2019 before slightly recovering. This suggests that while lower interest rates generally support homeownership, other factors such as rapidly increasing home prices may have outweighed the benefits of cheap financing in this neighborhood.
Renter percentages in Carousel have inversely mirrored the homeownership trends, increasing from 83% in 2013 to a peak of 90% in 2019, before settling at 85% in 2022. Average rent prices have also shown an upward trend, albeit less dramatic than home prices. In 2013, the average rent was $632, which increased to $779 by 2022, representing a 23% increase over nine years. The high renter percentage could be attributed to the rising home prices making renting a more accessible option for many residents.
Looking at the most recent data, average home prices in Carousel continued to rise in 2023 and 2024, reaching $422,406 and $443,815 respectively. This represents a 7.4% increase from 2022 to 2024. Concurrently, federal interest rates have also increased significantly, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. These higher interest rates, combined with the continued rise in home prices, may further impact homeownership rates in the neighborhood.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we can anticipate that average home prices in Carousel will likely continue to rise, albeit potentially at a slower rate due to the higher interest rate environment. Based on the historical data, we might expect average home prices to reach around $500,000 to $550,000 by 2029. Average rent prices are also expected to increase, potentially reaching $850 to $900 per month in the same timeframe, assuming the current trends continue.
In summary, the Carousel neighborhood has experienced a significant increase in average home prices, a general decline in homeownership rates, and a moderate rise in average rent prices over the past decade. The interplay between rising home values, fluctuating interest rates, and the high proportion of renters suggests a dynamic and evolving housing market. As the neighborhood moves forward, the balance between homeownership and renting will likely continue to be influenced by broader economic factors and local market conditions.
