Loading Content...
Home Values Soar and Ownership Plummets in Yellowstone Gateway Town Gardiner
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Loading Content...
Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Gardiner, Montana, a small community located near the north entrance of Yellowstone National Park, has experienced significant changes in its housing market and population dynamics over the past decade. This picturesque town, with a zip code of 59030, has witnessed notable trends in homeownership, average home prices, and average rent prices, revealing an evolving landscape for residents and potential newcomers.
From 2013 to 2022, Gardiner experienced a substantial shift in its homeownership rates. In 2013, 71% of housing units were owner-occupied, but by 2022, this figure had dropped to 39%. This dramatic decrease in homeownership was accompanied by a remarkable increase in average home prices. In 2013, the average home price was $299,453, which more than doubled to $801,439 by 2022. This inverse relationship between homeownership rates and average home prices suggests that rising property values may have priced out many potential buyers, shifting the balance towards a renter-majority community.
The federal interest rates have played a role in shaping homeownership trends in Gardiner. In 2013, when homeownership was at 71%, the federal interest rate was 0.11%. As interest rates remained low through 2020 (0.38%), we saw a gradual decline in homeownership. However, the sharp increase in interest rates to 1.68% in 2022 coincided with homeownership dropping to 39%. This trend aligns with the general principle that higher interest rates can discourage home buying due to increased borrowing costs.
As homeownership declined, the percentage of renters in Gardiner increased from 29% in 2013 to 61% in 2022. Interestingly, average rent prices did not see as dramatic an increase as home prices. In 2013, the average rent was $749, and by 2022 it had only slightly decreased to $721. This relatively stable rent pricing, despite the increasing demand for rentals, could be attributed to the declining population, which fell from 1,041 in 2013 to 642 in 2022. The lower population may have helped balance the supply and demand for rental properties, keeping rent prices relatively stable.
Looking at the most recent data, the average home price in Gardiner was $733,774 in 2023 and increased to $751,117 in 2024. This represents a 2.36% increase in just one year, indicating a continuing upward trend in property values. Meanwhile, the federal interest rate rose significantly to 5.02% in 2023 and further to 5.33% in 2024, which could potentially impact future homeownership rates and housing market dynamics.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we can expect average home prices in Gardiner to continue rising, potentially reaching around $850,000 by 2029. This projection is based on the historical growth rate and assumes similar market conditions persist. Average rent prices, which have been more stable, may see a moderate increase to approximately $780 per month by 2029, accounting for inflation and potential increased demand due to rising home prices.
In summary, Gardiner has experienced a significant shift from a predominantly homeowner community to a renter-majority one over the past decade. This change has been accompanied by a substantial increase in average home prices, while rent prices have remained relatively stable. The interplay between federal interest rates, population decline, and housing costs has reshaped the local real estate landscape. As we look to the future, continued growth in property values and a potential stabilization of the rental market are likely to define Gardiner's housing trends.
