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Home Values and Ownership Trends in Zip Code 11782: Sayville's Shifting Real Estate Landscape
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Sayville, located in zip code 11782 in New York, is a coastal community known for its charming downtown and proximity to Fire Island. Over the past decade, this area has experienced notable shifts in homeownership rates and property values. The overall trend shows a gradual decrease in owner-occupied housing, accompanied by a significant increase in average home prices and average rent costs.
From 2013 to 2022, the percentage of owner-occupied homes in Sayville decreased from 81% to 75%. During this same period, average home prices rose substantially, from $393,636 in 2013 to $616,144 in 2022, representing a 56.5% increase. This inverse relationship suggests that as property values appreciated, homeownership became less attainable for some residents. For instance, in 2016, when the ownership rate was 79% and the average home price was $428,165, we see a turning point where prices began to accelerate more rapidly while ownership rates continued to decline.
Federal interest rates have played a crucial role in shaping homeownership trends in Sayville. The period from 2013 to 2016 saw historically low interest rates, ranging from 0.11% to 0.40%, which coincided with a relatively stable homeownership rate of around 81%. However, as interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 (1%) to 2019 (2.16%), we observe a corresponding decrease in homeownership rates from 79% to 77%. This trend underscores the impact of financing costs on housing affordability and homeownership rates.
As homeownership rates declined, the percentage of renters in Sayville increased from 19% in 2013 to 25% in 2022. This shift was accompanied by a substantial rise in average rent prices, from $1,891 in 2013 to $2,226 in 2022, an increase of 17.7%. The most dramatic jump occurred between 2020 and 2021, when average rent rose from $2,200 to $2,306, coinciding with a population increase from 15,693 to 16,100. This suggests that increased demand for rental properties, possibly driven by those priced out of the homeownership market, contributed to rising rent costs.
In 2023 and 2024, the housing market in Sayville continued its upward trajectory. The average home price reached $624,092 in 2023 and further increased to $663,635 in 2024, representing a 6.3% year-over-year growth. This occurred despite a significant rise in federal interest rates, which stood at 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, potentially indicating strong underlying demand for housing in the area despite higher borrowing costs.
Looking ahead, predictive models suggest that average home prices in Sayville could continue to rise over the next five years, potentially reaching around $750,000 by 2029 if current trends persist. Average rent prices are also expected to increase, potentially surpassing $2,500 per month within the same timeframe. However, these projections assume a continuation of current economic conditions and housing market dynamics.
In summary, Sayville has experienced a clear trend of decreasing homeownership rates coupled with rising property values and rent costs over the past decade. The interplay between federal interest rates, population changes, and housing affordability has shaped these trends. As the community moves forward, the balance between homeownership and renting, along with overall housing affordability, will likely remain key issues for residents and policymakers alike.
