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Home Values and Ownership in Zip Code 95351: A Decade of Resilience in Modesto, California
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Zip code 95351, located in Modesto, California, has experienced significant changes in homeownership rates and housing prices over the past decade. This area has seen a shift from a predominantly renter-occupied market to a more balanced mix of owners and renters, alongside substantial increases in both average home prices and average rent.
The homeownership rate in zip code 95351 has shown a notable upward trend, particularly in recent years. In 2015, only 44% of housing units were owner-occupied. This figure increased steadily, reaching 51% by 2020 and maintaining that level through 2022. This rise in homeownership coincided with a dramatic increase in average home prices. In 2015, the average home price was $153,142, which more than doubled to $362,372 by 2022. This substantial appreciation in home values likely contributed to the increase in homeownership, as residents may have been motivated to buy homes to capitalize on the rising market.
Federal interest rates have played a significant role in shaping homeownership trends in zip code 95351. The period from 2015 to 2021 saw historically low interest rates, ranging from 0.13% to 1.68%. These low rates made mortgages more affordable, potentially contributing to the increase in homeownership from 44% in 2015 to 52% in 2021. However, as interest rates began to rise sharply in 2022 and 2023, reaching 5.02% in 2023, the homeownership rate slightly decreased to 51% in 2022, suggesting that higher borrowing costs may have started to impact homebuying decisions.
The rental market in zip code 95351 has also experienced significant changes. The percentage of renter-occupied units peaked at 57% in 2016 and has since decreased to 49% in 2022. Despite this decline in the proportion of renters, average rent prices have steadily increased. In 2013, the average rent was $1,060, which rose to $1,244 by 2022, representing a 17.4% increase over nine years. This upward trend in rent prices occurred even as the population fluctuated, reaching a peak of 51,195 in 2018 before declining to 48,857 in 2022.
In 2023 and 2024, the housing market in zip code 95351 showed interesting developments. The average home price decreased slightly from $362,372 in 2022 to $353,664 in 2023, marking the first decline in over a decade. However, the market rebounded in 2024, with average home prices rising to $369,885. This recovery occurred despite federal interest rates remaining high at 5.33% in 2024, indicating resilience in the local housing market.
Looking ahead, predictive models suggest that average home prices in zip code 95351 may continue to rise over the next five years, albeit at a more moderate pace than seen in the early 2020s. Average rent prices are also expected to increase, potentially reaching around $1,500 by 2029. However, these projections may be influenced by various factors, including economic conditions, local development, and changes in population dynamics.
In summary, zip code 95351 has experienced a significant shift towards homeownership, with substantial increases in both average home prices and average rent over the past decade. The area has shown resilience in the face of rising interest rates, with home prices rebounding in 2024 after a brief decline. As the market continues to evolve, balancing affordability with property value appreciation will be crucial for maintaining a diverse and stable housing ecosystem in this Modesto neighborhood.
