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Home Values and Ownership in Brownsville: A Decade of Stability Amid Rising Prices
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Brownsville, Kentucky, a small city with a population of 3,676 in 2022, has experienced significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. This charming community, nestled in the heart of Kentucky, has seen fluctuations in homeownership rates, average home prices, and average rent prices, reflecting broader economic trends and local market dynamics.
The homeownership rate in Brownsville has shown a general upward trend since 2013, with some recent fluctuations. In 2013, the homeownership rate was 68%, which steadily increased to 81% by 2019. However, there has been a slight decline in recent years, with the rate dropping to 77% in 2022. This trend coincides with changes in average home prices, which have seen substantial growth over the same period. In 2013, the average home price in Brownsville was $76,711. By 2022, this figure had more than doubled to $163,936, representing a significant increase in property values.
The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in Brownsville appears to follow established trends. As interest rates remained low between 2013 and 2021, hovering around 0.1% to 1.83%, homeownership rates generally increased. This aligns with the principle that lower interest rates make home financing more affordable, encouraging homeownership. However, the recent rise in interest rates to 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024 may partly explain the slight decrease in homeownership rates observed in 2022.
Conversely, the percentage of renters in Brownsville has generally decreased over time, from 29% in 2013 to 23% in 2022. This trend has occurred despite fluctuations in average rent prices. In 2013, the average rent was $675, which peaked at $736 in 2016 before declining to $663 in 2022. The decrease in the renter population, despite relatively stable rent prices, may be attributed to the city's overall population decline from 3,597 in 2013 to 3,676 in 2022, as well as the increasing trend towards homeownership during this period.
Looking at the most recent data, the average home price in Brownsville continued to rise, reaching $172,825 in 2023 and $177,481 in 2024. This upward trajectory in home values has persisted despite the significant increase in interest rates to 5.33% in 2024, suggesting strong underlying demand in the local housing market.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in Brownsville will continue to rise, albeit at a potentially slower rate due to higher interest rates. By 2029, average home prices could reach approximately $200,000 to $220,000, assuming steady economic growth and continued demand for housing in the area. Average rent prices are expected to stabilize or increase moderately, potentially reaching $700 to $750 per month by 2029, reflecting the balance between housing demand and the city's population trends.
In summary, Brownsville has experienced a notable increase in homeownership rates and average home prices over the past decade, with a corresponding decrease in the renter population. The city's housing market has shown resilience, with property values continuing to appreciate even in the face of rising interest rates. These trends suggest a strong local housing market, with potential for continued growth in property values and a stable rental market in the coming years.
