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Holly Hill's Violent Crime Decline: A Decade of Progress
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Holly Hill, located in Florida, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. With a population of 22,451 in 2022, this small city has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 67.5%, from 123 to 40 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 14.3%, from 19,647 to 22,451 residents.
The murder rate in the city has remained relatively low, with most years reporting zero murders. There were isolated incidents in 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, and 2020, each with one reported murder. Given the small population, these individual cases significantly impact the murder rate per 1,000 people, ranging from 0 to 0.05. The percentage of state murders attributed to Holly Hill has fluctuated between 0% and 0.18%, indicating that the city contributes minimally to Florida's overall murder statistics.
Rape incidents in the city have shown a decreasing trend. The number of reported rapes peaked at 13 in 2015, representing a rate of 0.65 per 1,000 residents and 0.34% of the state's total. By 2022, this number had dropped to just 1 incident, or 0.04 per 1,000 residents and 0.06% of the state's total. This significant decrease suggests improved safety for residents in this regard.
Robbery rates have also declined substantially. In 2010, there were 34 robberies (1.73 per 1,000 residents), accounting for 0.2% of Florida's robberies. By 2022, this number had plummeted to just 2 incidents (0.09 per 1,000 residents), representing only 0.07% of the state's total. This 94.1% decrease in robberies over 12 years indicates a notable improvement in public safety.
Aggravated assault, while showing overall decline, has had more fluctuation. In 2010, there were 83 cases (4.22 per 1,000 residents), representing 0.23% of Florida's total. The number dropped to a low of 19 in 2017 but rose again to 37 in 2022 (1.65 per 1,000 residents), accounting for 0.28% of the state's total. Despite the recent uptick, the overall trend shows a 55.4% decrease in aggravated assaults from 2010 to 2022.
A strong correlation exists between the city's changing demographics and violent crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 76% in 2013 to 66% in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall violent crime. Simultaneously, the Black population increased slightly from 16% to 19%, and the Hispanic population grew from 4% to 9%. This demographic shift coincided with the general downward trend in violent crime, suggesting that increased diversity may have contributed to improved community safety.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Holly Hill could see its violent crime rate continue to decrease, potentially reaching as low as 30 incidents per year. This projection assumes the continuation of current demographic trends and community policing efforts.
In summary, Holly Hill has made significant strides in reducing violent crime over the past decade, with notable decreases across all categories. The changing demographic composition of the city appears to have played a role in this positive trend. As the community continues to evolve, maintaining these lower crime rates will be crucial for the city's ongoing development and the well-being of its residents.
