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Holcomb, Kansas: A Decade of Low Violent Crime Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Holcomb, Kansas, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends, with a population that has grown from 2,078 in 2010 to 2,964 in 2022, representing a 42.6% increase over this period. The total number of violent crimes fluctuated between 0 and 4 incidents annually from 2010 to 2017, showing no consistent trend in relation to the population growth.
In examining murder rates, the data shows no reported incidents of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2017. This consistent absence of murders, despite the population growth, indicates a remarkably low homicide rate for the city. The percentage of state crime for murder remained at 0% throughout this period, suggesting that Holcomb did not contribute to the state's murder statistics during these years.
Similarly, the data reveals no reported incidents of rape from 2010 to 2017. The absence of reported rapes, even as the population increased, suggests either a very safe environment regarding sexual violence or potential underreporting issues. The city's contribution to the state's rape statistics remained at 0% throughout this period.
Robbery trends in the city show minimal activity. There was only one reported robbery in 2014, with the city accounting for 0.15% of the state's robberies that year. This translates to a rate of approximately 0.42 robberies per 1,000 people in 2014, based on the population of 2,398 that year. All other years from 2010 to 2017 saw no reported robberies, indicating that this crime type is extremely rare in the city.
Aggravated assault appears to be the most prevalent form of violent crime in Holcomb, though occurrences are still infrequent. The city reported 1 incident in 2011, 3 in 2013, and 4 in 2016. These numbers correspond to rates of approximately 0.45, 1.26, and 1.53 aggravated assaults per 1,000 people in those respective years. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics ranged from 0.02% in 2011 to 0.07% in 2016, indicating a very small impact on overall state figures.
When examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, the data suggests a weak positive correlation between population growth and the incidence of aggravated assaults. As the population increased, there was a slight tendency for more aggravated assaults to occur, though this relationship is not strong or consistent enough to draw definitive conclusions.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the low and inconsistent number of incidents. However, if current trends continue, we might expect murder and rape incidents to remain at or very close to zero, robbery incidents to occur very rarely, perhaps once every 5-10 years, and aggravated assaults to potentially increase slightly, perhaps reaching 5-6 incidents per year by 2029, assuming population growth continues at a similar rate.
In summary, Holcomb demonstrates remarkably low violent crime rates across all categories, particularly given its population growth. The most significant trend is the sporadic occurrence of aggravated assaults, which, while still rare, represent the majority of violent crimes in the city. These findings suggest that Holcomb maintains a relatively safe environment for its residents, with violent crime rates well below what might be expected for a city of its size and growth rate.
