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Hastings, Nebraska: A Decade of Declining Property Crime Amidst Population Stability
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Hastings, located in Nebraska, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 746 incidents in 2010 to 588 in 2022, representing a 21.2% reduction. During this same timeframe, the population remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease from 27,211 in 2010 to 27,197 in 2022, a mere 0.05% change.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 84 burglaries reported, which increased to a peak of 198 in 2013 before steadily declining to 36 in 2022. This represents a 57.1% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 3.09 in 2010 to 1.32 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 1.28% in 2010 to 3.56% in 2021, before dropping sharply to 1.23% in 2022. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, it did so at a faster rate than the state average in recent years.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a decreasing trend. From 631 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 755 in 2014 before declining to 499 in 2022, a 20.9% decrease over the 12-year period. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 23.19 in 2010 to 18.35 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft incidents increased slightly from 1.99% in 2010 to 2.03% in 2022, indicating that the city's improvement in this category was roughly in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed more volatility. From 31 incidents in 2010, it rose to a high of 84 in 2018 before decreasing to 53 in 2022, representing a 71% increase over the period. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.14 in 2010 to 1.95 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.98% in 2010 to 1.08% in 2022, suggesting a slightly worsening situation relative to the state average.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively low but showed an upward trend. From 4 incidents in 2010, the number doubled to 8 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.15 to 0.29 over this period. More notably, the city's share of state arson cases rose dramatically from 1.96% in 2010 to 5.84% in 2022, indicating a significant increase in the city's contribution to state arson statistics.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $55,222 in 2013 to $62,578 in 2022, total property crimes generally decreased. Additionally, there's a slight correlation between the decline in the white population percentage (from 87% in 2013 to 82% in 2022) and the overall decrease in property crimes, though this relationship requires further investigation to determine causality.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), total property crimes may continue to decrease, potentially reaching around 500 incidents annually. Burglaries are likely to stabilize at a lower level, possibly around 30 per year. Larceny-theft may continue its gradual decline to approximately 450 incidents. Motor vehicle theft could potentially stabilize or slightly decrease to around 45-50 cases annually. Arson cases, given their recent upward trend, may increase slightly to 10-12 incidents per year.
In conclusion, Hastings has shown overall improvement in property crime rates from 2010 to 2022, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. However, challenges remain with motor vehicle theft and arson trends. The city's evolving demographic and economic landscape appears to have some influence on these crime trends, suggesting that continued focus on economic development and community engagement could further enhance public safety in the coming years.
